(Bloomberg) — A year since the botched premiere of CD Projekt SA’s Cyberpunk 2077, things haven’t got a whole lot better for the struggling Polish video-game studio.
The shares are down 54% in that time and analyst price targets indicate a further 15% downside over the coming 12 months.
It’s a far cry from the hype that surrounded the launch of the futuristic role-playing game that had been touted as the next in a line of blockbusters that culminated with the third installment of the Witcher series in 2015.
Where analysts had originally expected Cyberpunk sales of 30 million units in the year after the game’s release, they now expect just 17.3 million copies to have been sold in that time, according to the average of nine estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That includes 13.7 million sold in pre-orders and at around the time of last year’s launch.
“2021 has illustrated how long and bumpy the road to rehabilitation will be,” said Matti Littunen, an analyst at Bernstein. “Fixing Cyberpunk, which is the key for audience relationship, will take a while.”
Even as Cyberpunk is finally getting better reviews thanks to multiple patches, redemption remains distant. In 2022, when the studio plans to release a new, technically advanced version of the game for next-generation consoles, analysts see sales rising to only 5.3 million units from 3.6 million for 2021. They are also uncertain about average prices, as Cyberpunk is still sold at a discount to its launch price of $59.99.
Until now, CD Projekt hasn’t released new data for unit sales. Third-quarter revenue missed estimates, underlining worries that Cyberpunk’s glitches — which led Sony Group Corp. to temporarily remove the title from its PlayStation store — will drag on its popularity for longer.
There’s also concern among analysts that the studio’s intense efforts to improve Cyberpunk will stand in the way of work on future money-making projects, including a possible next version of the Witcher game.
“There’s a high risk that there won’t be any upside, especially as the company trades above fundamentals and will depend on revenue from one game only for many years,” said Piotr Bogusz, an analyst at Erste Securities Polska SA.
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