ALMATY (Reuters) – Kazakhstan’s central bank may hold its interest rate at 9.75% on Monday as inflation remains elevated, according to half of the analysts surveyed in a Reuters poll on Friday, with others divided between a hike and a cut.
Four of the eight analysts polled by Reuters this week said they see the rate remaining unchanged, with three analysts forecasting a 25 basis point hike and one saying the bank will cut the rate at the Jan. 24 meeting.
At its last policy meeting in December, the bank kept the rate unchanged, having previously raised it by 25 bps in October.
Annual inflation in the energy-producing Central Asian republic slowed to 8.4% in December from 8.7% a month earlier, but remained well above the target range of 4-6%.
However, some analysts believe the bank might switch to unorthodox policy in the aftermath of this month’s unrest https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstan-says-225-bodies-delivered-morgues-during-unrest-2022-01-15, the deadliest in the country’s post-Soviet history.
“I think it is possible that the rate will be cut to 9.0% … as a short-term measure to aid economic recovery,” said Aibek Burabayev, deputy director of financial markets at ICBC Almaty.
(Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)
