(Bloomberg) — Western countries are continuing their diplomatic press to deter Moscow from attacking Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Tuesday with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, his closest friend in the European Union.
Russia said it has yet to respond to written proposals delivered last week by the U.S. and NATO, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte were also both expected in Ukraine to meet with its president.
In parallel, the U.S. and EU are finalizing a package of potential Russian sanctions, with the U.K. looking at targeting “any company or individual of direct interest to the Russian state” if Moscow were to invade Ukraine. The U.S. and U.K. said that would include sanctions on oligarchs close to Putin.
Western officials say Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border, with the figures rising steadily since November. The U.K. and U.S. put the current numbers close to 130,000. Russia insists it has no plans to invade.
Key Developments
- What we know so far about potential U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia
- Where military forces are assembling around Russia and Ukraine
- Thousands of U.S., allied troops are a boon to eastern NATO members
- U.S. Senate closes in on a raft of “pre-invasion” sanctions
- Russia’s media attention has shifted away from Kyiv to NATO
All times CET
Blinken-Lavrov Call Shows No Sign of Breakthrough (4:26 p.m.)
No breakthrough was apparent after Blinken’s call with Lavrov, with the Biden administration official reinforcing the U.S. position committing to Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity – and repeating, with reference to NATO, that all countries can choose their own alliances.
“The Secretary emphasized the U.S. willingness, bilaterally and together with Allies and partners, to continue a substantive exchange with Russia on mutual security concerns, which we intend to do in full coordination with our partners and Allies,” the statement read.
Ukraine Leader Seeks Bigger, Professional Military (2:34 p.m.)
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a decree calling on the government to boost the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian military by 100,000 in the next three years to almost 350,000 — and to secure budget spending for higher wages and social support for service members.
The decree called for an end to mandatory conscription by 2024 to gradually introduce the professional military service.
U.K. Sees No Sign of Russia De-Escalating (1:20 p.m.)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his cabinet the U.K. sees no signs of Russia de-escalating tensions, which remain “deeply concerning,” his spokesman, Max Blain, told reporters in London.
Chief of the Defense Staff Tony Radakin also addressed Johnson’s team, saying Russia has amassed a “significant proportion” of its land forces on the border with Ukraine, and has been carrying out military exercises “on a scale never seen before,” according to Blain.
Johnson is due to speak by phone with Putin on Wednesday. The call was originally planned for Monday, before Johnson was compelled to spend almost two hours in the House of Commons defending himself over rule-breaking parties in Downing Street during the Covid-19 lockdowns.
Biden’s Cybersecurity Adviser Meeting With NATO (1 p.m.)
A top U.S. cybersecurity official arrives in Europe on Tuesday to discuss cyber threats and defense with NATO and U.S. allies, senior Biden administration officials said.
The trip by Anne Neuberger, the U.S. deputy national security adviser for cybersecurity, unfolds after Ukraine has reported cyberattacks against numerous government agencies, and as it girds for potentially crippling assaults in its standoff with Russia.
Neuberger’s tour begins in Brussels, where she’ll meet with EU officials and NATO’s North Atlantic Council on strategies to respond to cyberattacks against members of the alliance, as well as ways to counter Russian interference in Ukraine, the officials said. She then heads to Warsaw for sessions with representatives of Poland as well as the Baltic states.
Poland’s PM: Pipeline Would Be ‘Loading a Gun’ (12:50 pm CET)
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Germany would be “loading a gun” for Putin if it began operating the Baltic Sea pipeline link to Russia. The Gazprom project poses a “massive threat” to security and peace in Europe, he told a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv on Tuesday.
“We appeal to Germans not to open this pipeline,” Morawiecki said. “You can’t express solidarity with Ukraine with one hand and certify Nord Stream 2 with the other.”
Russia’s Media Focus Turns to NATO from Kyiv (12:30 p.m.)
An analysis of nearly 28 million news items from July 25 2020 through Jan. 25 2022 by Semantic Visions, a Prague-based data analytics company, found Russian media’s main focus in the crisis is now NATO rather than Ukraine, in contrast to the Kremlin’s military buildup in Spring last year.
The shift in hostile coverage suggests Putin is using the tensions “to win concessions from the West” rather than prepare Russians for a large-scale invasion, said the company’s CEO Frank Vrabel.
Russia Has Yet to Deliver Response to U.S., NATO (10:53 a.m.)
Russia delivered an unspecified document to the U.S. but has yet to send its formal response to U.S. and NATO papers addressing Moscow’s demands to redraw Europe’s security architecture, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Two European diplomats confirmed Russia sent something that didn’t reply to their proposals.
“There was some confusion,” Peskov told a conference call, saying the document sent Monday was on a “different issue.” Russia will send its responses on the security proposals “when the president deems it necessary,” he added.
Putin Is ‘Opportunistic,’ EU Official Says (10:02 a.m.)
European officials are again acknowledging they don’t know what Putin’s intentions are toward Ukraine. “Putin’s actions are often opportunistic,” EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview on Bloomberg Television during his visit to Kyiv. The Russians “are ready to go as far as in a sense they are allowed to go. That’s why it’s important that the Western world is now concentrating and taking all the necessary measures to prevent and dissuade Russia from further aggression.”
Gas Prices Fall as Russia Boosts Flows Through Ukraine (9:10 a.m.)
Russian natural gas shipments to Europe via a key route in Ukraine rebounded to normal levels after curbs last month. The boost in flows, together with mild weather, helped push gas prices down for a third day, easing supply concerns. Russia has said its lower exports when prices were higher reflected reduced demand from customers.
EU Zeroes In on Russian Sanctions Targets (8:24 a.m.)
The EU is refining a list of people and entities to sanction if Russia invades Ukraine, targeting people they say are undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and destabilizing the country, according to a person familiar with the matter. The targets broadly fall into four categories: politics, military, economy, information. The U.K. and the U.S., meanwhile, are working on sanctions that would target oligarchs and Putin’s inner circle.
The EU is also coordinating with the U.S. and the U.K. on a package of measures to sanction banks and some financial transactions, as well as a set of trade restrictions on key technologies and industries. The bloc is currently assessing the possible impact of trade measures such as export controls, the person said. EU member states are keen to avoid unintended consequences and negatively impacting their economies.
U.S. Orders Diplomat Families Out of Belarus (2:25 a.m.)
The U.S. State Department said it ordered family members of government employees to leave Belarus, while warning American citizens to avoid traveling to the country due to “an increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine.”
The “Do Not Travel” advisory, posted to the State Department’s website, warned that the situation was “unpredictable” and called on U.S. citizens to reconsider travel.
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