(Bloomberg) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said he hopes diplomatic talks continue, although U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov showed little sign of a breakthrough in the confrontation over Ukraine.
The two diplomats signaled that they would keep diplomacy going after a phone call on Tuesday. The point was underscored by a flurry of visits of European leaders to Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin met with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, his closest friend in the European Union, while U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Ukraine and promised aid.
Western officials say Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukraine border, with the figures rising steadily since November. The U.K. and U.S. put the current numbers close to 130,000. Russia insists it has no plans to invade.
Key Developments
- What we know so far about potential U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia
- Where military forces are assembling around Russia and Ukraine
- Thousands of U.S., allied troops are a boon to eastern NATO members
- U.S. Senate closes in on a raft of “pre-invasion” sanctions
- Russia’s media attention has shifted away from Kyiv to NATO
All times CET
Zelenskiy Plans to Bulk Up Navy With U.K. Help (7:48 p.m.)
Ukraine plans to bulk up its navy with the help of the U.K. as Russian troops amass near its borders, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said during a visit by Prime Minister Johnson.
At a joint briefing in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said Ukraine appreciates U.K. assistance that includes building modern naval bases and other military aid, which he valued at 1.7 billion pounds ($2.4 billion). He said the U.K. is also providing almost 2 billion pounds for other joint projects, including infrastructure and energy.
“We must prepare for the bad things, and we are doing that,” Zelenskiy said. “Russians should hear us, listen to us and understand that nobody needs war.”
Zelenskiy estimated Russia has 30,000 to 50,000 servicemen in Crimea, 30,000 to 35,000 in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine, and more than 100,000 on its own territory bordering Ukraine. Earlier in the day, Zelenskiy signed a decree to boost the military by 100,000 servicemen within the next three years, an increase of more than one-third.
U.K.’s Johnson Says Putin Seeks to Redraw the Map (7:15 p.m.)
U.K. Prime Minister Johnson, speaking at a news conference in Kyiv, said Putin is “trying to redraw the security maps of Europe,” contending that a potential move to annex Ukraine could be followed in turn by invasions of Georgia and Moldova.
Johnson announced 88 million pounds ($119 million) in aid to support transparency and anti-corruption initiatives in Ukraine and go toward efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian energy supplies. If Putin ordered an invasion, Johnson said, he would immediately impose sanctions on Russian oligarchs in the U.K. Johnson is due to speak to Putin Wednesday.
Putin Says He Hopes Diplomatic Efforts Continue (6:46 p.m.)
Putin said he hoped diplomatic dialogue will continue with the U.S. and NATO on Moscow’s security demands and that a solution can be found, though it’s not yet possible to know what the outcome of negotiations will be.
At a Kremlin news conference late Tuesday after almost five hours of talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin accused the U.S. of seeking to use Ukraine to contain Russia and said the placing of American missile systems in Romania and Poland would threaten Russian security. He also said French President Emmanuel Macron may visit Moscow soon.
Italy Monitoring Russian Ships in the Mediterranean (6:10 p.m.)
Italy is monitoring the transit of a group of Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea south of Sicily.
The ships are “in international waters and do not violate the sovereignty of coastal states,” Italy’s joint chiefs of staff said in a statement. Press reports about a large group of Russian ships close to Italy had created alarm, in part for the potential closeness to NATO naval exercises. NATO has been monitoring the group’s navigation since its departure in mid-Janaury and there have been no signs of escalation by NATO or Russian forces, according to the statement.
Lavrov, Blinken Discuss Proposals But No Word on More Talks (5:40 p.m.)
The Russian envoy said he reiterated the nation’s “negative” view of the U.S.’s written response to Moscow’s security demands. The two sides will agree on future discussions once Russia’s response to the proposals is submitted, U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said after the phone call.
Blinken and Lavrov spoke in English for about 30 minutes in a call that a State Department official characterized as professional and fairly candid. Lavrov said the U.S. is concentrating its responses on “secondary issues,” while rejecting Moscow’s demands that NATO expand no farther to the east and not deploy offensive weapons near Russia’s borders.
Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. is willing to have a “substantive exchange with Russia” on security concerns but repeated a demand for “immediate de-escalation” on Ukraine’s borders.
Ukraine Leader Seeks Bigger, Professional Military (2:34 p.m.)
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a decree calling on the government to boost the number of soldiers in the Ukrainian military by 100,000 in the next three years to almost 350,000 — and to secure budget spending for higher wages and social support for service members.
The decree called for an end to mandatory conscription by 2024 to gradually introduce the professional military service.
U.K. Sees No Sign of Russia De-Escalating (1:20 p.m.)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his cabinet the U.K. sees no signs of Russia de-escalating tensions, which remain “deeply concerning,” his spokesman, Max Blain, told reporters in London.
Chief of the Defense Staff Tony Radakin also addressed Johnson’s team, saying Russia has amassed a “significant proportion” of its land forces on the border with Ukraine, and has been carrying out military exercises “on a scale never seen before,” according to Blain.
Johnson is due to speak by phone with Putin on Wednesday. The call was originally planned for Monday, before Johnson was compelled to spend almost two hours in the House of Commons defending himself over rule-breaking parties in Downing Street during the Covid-19 lockdowns.
Biden’s Cybersecurity Adviser Meeting With NATO (1 p.m.)
A top U.S. cybersecurity official arrives in Europe on Tuesday to discuss cyber threats and defense with NATO and U.S. allies, senior Biden administration officials said.
The trip by Anne Neuberger, the U.S. deputy national security adviser for cybersecurity, unfolds after Ukraine has reported cyberattacks against numerous government agencies, and as it girds for potentially crippling assaults in its standoff with Russia.
Neuberger’s tour begins in Brussels, where she’ll meet with EU officials and NATO’s North Atlantic Council on strategies to respond to cyberattacks against members of the alliance, as well as ways to counter Russian interference in Ukraine, the officials said. She then heads to Warsaw for sessions with representatives of Poland as well as the Baltic states.
Poland’s PM: Pipeline Would Be ‘Loading a Gun’ (12:50 pm CET)
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Germany would be “loading a gun” for Putin if it began operating the Baltic Sea pipeline link to Russia. The Gazprom project poses a “massive threat” to security and peace in Europe, he told a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv on Tuesday.
“We appeal to Germans not to open this pipeline,” Morawiecki said. “You can’t express solidarity with Ukraine with one hand and certify Nord Stream 2 with the other.”
Russia’s Media Focus Turns to NATO from Kyiv (12:30 p.m.)
An analysis of nearly 28 million news items from July 25 2020 through Jan. 25 2022 by Semantic Visions, a Prague-based data analytics company, found Russian media’s main focus in the crisis is now NATO rather than Ukraine, in contrast to the Kremlin’s military buildup in Spring last year.
The shift in hostile coverage suggests Putin is using the tensions “to win concessions from the West” rather than prepare Russians for a large-scale invasion, said the company’s CEO Frank Vrabel.
Russia Has Yet to Deliver Response to U.S., NATO (10:53 a.m.)
Russia delivered an unspecified document to the U.S. but has yet to send its formal response to U.S. and NATO papers addressing Moscow’s demands to redraw Europe’s security architecture, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Two European diplomats confirmed Russia sent something that didn’t reply to their proposals.
“There was some confusion,” Peskov told a conference call, saying the document sent Monday was on a “different issue.” Russia will send its responses on the security proposals “when the president deems it necessary,” he added.
Putin Is ‘Opportunistic,’ EU Official Says (10:02 a.m.)
European officials are again acknowledging they don’t know what Putin’s intentions are toward Ukraine. “Putin’s actions are often opportunistic,” EU Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview on Bloomberg Television during his visit to Kyiv. The Russians “are ready to go as far as in a sense they are allowed to go. That’s why it’s important that the Western world is now concentrating and taking all the necessary measures to prevent and dissuade Russia from further aggression.”
Gas Prices Fall as Russia Boosts Flows Through Ukraine (9:10 a.m.)
Russian natural gas shipments to Europe via a key route in Ukraine rebounded to normal levels after curbs last month. The boost in flows, together with mild weather, helped push gas prices down for a third day, easing supply concerns. Russia has said its lower exports when prices were higher reflected reduced demand from customers.
EU Zeroes In on Russian Sanctions Targets (8:24 a.m.)
The EU is refining a list of people and entities to sanction if Russia invades Ukraine, targeting people they say are undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity and destabilizing the country, according to a person familiar with the matter. The targets broadly fall into four categories: politics, military, economy, information. The U.K. and the U.S., meanwhile, are working on sanctions that would target oligarchs and Putin’s inner circle.
The EU is also coordinating with the U.S. and the U.K. on a package of measures to sanction banks and some financial transactions, as well as a set of trade restrictions on key technologies and industries. The bloc is currently assessing the possible impact of trade measures such as export controls, the person said. EU member states are keen to avoid unintended consequences and negatively impacting their economies.
U.S. Orders Diplomat Families Out of Belarus (2:25 a.m.)
The U.S. State Department said it ordered family members of government employees to leave Belarus, while warning American citizens to avoid traveling to the country due to “an increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine.”
The “Do Not Travel” advisory, posted to the State Department’s website, warned that the situation was “unpredictable” and called on U.S. citizens to reconsider travel.
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