While you were asleep: South Africa to help end the war in Ukraine? Don’t bet on it

Are we going to play a meaningful role in the ending of the war in Ukraine through mediation with Russia?

President Cyril Ramaphosa called Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday to better gain an understanding of the ‘situation’ between Russia and Ukraine, Ramaphosa fell short of calling it an invasion or a war.

On his Twitter account, Ramaphosa said, “I outlined our position on the conflict that has unfolded as well as our belief that the conflict should be resolved through mediation and negotiation between the parties and – if need be – with the help of agencies that can help bring a solution to the conflict.

“President Putin appreciated our balanced approach. We believe this position enables both parties to subject the conflict to mediation and negotiation. Based on our relations with the Russian Federation and as member of BRICS, South Africa has been approached to play a mediation role.”

Ramaphosa did not say who had approached South Africa to be a mediator but did say that South Africa and Russia had reaffirmed commitments to each other to develop bilateral relations.

But can South Africa play a key role in mediating a peaceful resolution to the Russian aggression in Ukraine?

It’s doubtful, Daily Maverick spoke to senior officials who say only China and India would be able to exert any influence over Putin but both nations were carefully courted by Putin before he decided to invade Ukraine. Evidence of this is seen through New York Times reporting where Putin agreed to delay the invasion until after the Beijing Winter Olympics.

Ramaphosa also asked Putin to explain the “reasons for and goals of the special military operation to protect Donbas”.

While the Kremlin said in a statement that Putin informed Ramaphosa about the ongoing diplomatic talks with Ukraine.

The Kremlin said Ramaphosa supported the ongoing political and diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, European Union members are at odds with each other over Ukraine’s bid to be granted quick EU membership. Joining the EU is a process that usually takes years and requires meeting strict criteria from economic stability to rooting out corruption to respecting liberal human rights, reports Reuters.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had sought to be accepted into the EU quickly and has received support from some of his neighbouring countries that are already part of the union, but Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said “there is no fast-track process. ” Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic echoed the sentiment, “nobody entered the European Union overnight,” while President of the European Council Charles Michel voiced moral support and sympathy for Ukraine.

On home soil, President Ramaphosa finally decided on who would take up the chief justice position at the Constitutional Court. The president decided to appoint the man who has been the acting chief justice ever since Mogoeng Mogoeng vacated the position last year, Raymond Zondo.

Judge Mandisa Maya will assume the deputy chief justice position after she was initially recommended for the top job by the Judicial Services Commission (JSC).

Ramaphosa’s intention to appoint Zondo to the top job is a smart strategic move, reports Daily Maverick with the president signalling to the JSC that the ultimate power to appoint the chief justice lies with him. The constitution calls for the president to consult with the JSC and opposition parties on the appointment but that the decision rests with the president over who to appoint.

In a statement on the appointment, Ramaphosa said he had “every confidence that Justice Zondo will acquit himself with distinction in this role.”

In the markets, after diplomatic discussions between Ukraine and Russia’s foreign ministries came to nothing yesterday, some of the risk-on mood optimism has faded.  

US inflation hit a new 40y high of 7.9%, while US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said that high inflation would be exacerbated by the events in Eastern Europe, comments TreasuryONE.

The rand was briefly below the R15.00/$ level but retreated as the dollar recovered yesterday. This morning, the local unit opened softer along with its emerging market peers and is currently trading at R15.10/$.

On the commodity front, gold is trading 0.5% softer at $1,985 this morning, while platinum is lower at $1,061, and palladium flat at $2,935. Brent crude is also slightly down from yesterday and is currently at $109.40 a barrel.