Talks between Ukraine and Russia’s foreign ministers have yielded little progress thus far in the delicate diplomatic give and take that peaceful negotiation often are, and there is little sign that we’ll see any sort of resolution soon.
When two parties are at an impasse, bringing in a third party to act as a mediator often yields a result and it’s here where President Cyril Ramaphosa hopes to play a role.
The president has offered South Africa’s services as a mediator for the two nations embroiled in war, but he has already made a fatal flaw and SA’s own foreign policy actions have been seen as less diplomatically neutral and more in line with Russian backing.
Ramaphosa has only spoken to the Russians thus far writes Justice Malala and any hope of being seen as a neutral party are now gone. When Ramaphosa finally decides to talk with the Ukrainians how can they trust that he is anything more than Vladimir Putin’s puppet contends Malala.
While Malala concedes that Ramaphosa does need to be diplomatic, there are ways of condemning Russian aggression without offending anyone and still being able to get all the relevant parties around a table.
A “legitimate mediator” would be talking to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy writes Malala.
Ramaphosa has an excellent mediation pedigree. He first came to the negotiating table during apartheid when the ANC and the National Party (NP) sat down to discuss the end of a system of oppression and the first democratic elections. Here, Ramaphosa came face to face with the NP’s Roelf Meyer, who he befriended and worked together with to bring about an agreement all could accept.
Ramaphosa and Meyer would later form a partnership and helped with mediation from Ireland to Sri Lanka.
But solving the conflict in Eastern Europe is a difficult challenge and one that would have to include NATO as the third player in the war given the organisation has been supplying Ukraine with arms.
Turkey, a NATO member, and the current base of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia would hardly be seen as an impartial stakeholder in the war.
NATO, the Russian Federation, and the Ukrainian leadership would have to come to the table to agree on what conditions each would seek from each other and where compromises could be achieved to reach a peaceful resolution.
As for South Africa’s role in any sort of mediation, if we are ever invited to the process writes Malala it will just be history repeating itself like when SA tried to play mediator during the violence that shook Zimbabwe under former president Robert Mugabe’s rule.
“All this is very familiar. When SA was allegedly mediating in the Zimbabwean crisis in the late 2000s, the ANC behaved as if it were Robert Mugabe’s personal assistant. The man barked and the ANC leadership jumped a kilometre high. He tortured opposition leaders and the ANC kept schtum. That’s why all that failed. The ANC was coddling a dictator.”
Malala writes South Africa is doing just the same with Putin.
Here’s a roundup of interesting opinions, analyses, and editorials:
ROSS HARVEY: Cosying up to Russia amid Ukraine crisis will not spare SA’s economy – Business Day
YACOOB ABBA OMAR: SA should follow principled approach to Ukraine war – Business Day
WILLIAM GUMEDE | SA’s future is in Russia’s hands – Sunday Times Daily (for subscribers)
Stalingrad on the Dnieper – Putin could resort to use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, expert warns – Daily Maverick
Backing Russia will cost South Africa – The Citizen (for subscribers)
Russian victory and oppression or a Russian defeat and a new era for democracy? – Daily Friend
Nothing ‘new’ or ‘clear’ about National Nuclear Regulator’s decisions – Mail & Guardian
EDITORIAL: How can we tell if Eskom really is not tolerating poor performance? – Business Day (register to read)
