JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus for March, as the rate of growth of both imports and exports slowed from the preceding month, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The median forecast of 11 economists in the poll was for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy to post a $2.89 billion trade surplus in March, down from February’s $3.82 billion.
Indonesia had reported monthly trade surpluses since May 2020, riding a boom in exports due to rising commodity prices and outpacing growth in imports.
The poll predicted March exports grew at an annual pace of 23.8%, down from 34.1% a month earlier. Imports were seen up 18.3%, slowing from growth of 25.4% in February.
Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata, said the narrowing of the surplus was due to imports picking up as economic activity recovered and with rising energy imports.
“Oil and gas imports tend to increase in one or two months before the (Ramadan) holiday,” he said, noting a sharp increase in global oil prices was also expected to boost the cost of energy imports.
The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan started in April and tens of millions of Indonesians are expected to travel to their home towns and villages for the Eid al-Fitr holidays in early May.
The March trade data will be released on Monday.
(Polling by Swathi Nair in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Ed Davies)
