Ukraine Latest: EU Gas Prices Soar as Poland, Bulgaria Face Cuts

(Bloomberg) — Russia said it will stop natural gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday, making good on a threat to cut off the NATO member countries if they refused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay in rubles. 

Poland said it had enough supplies, but European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other countries being hit next. Bulgaria said it has taken steps to secure alternative supplies.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, seeking to revive diplomatic efforts to end the war more than two months after Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. 

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted talks with officials from more than 40 countries at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss ways of boosting weapons supplies to Ukraine. Violence flared in the nearby breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova.

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Key Developments

  • Russia Left Swaths of Ukraine Seeded With Mines, Aid Group Says
  • Russia Warns Poland It Must Pay Up for Its Gas in Rubles Today
  • Moldova Accuses Moscow-Backed Separatists of Fueling Tensions
  • Russia Warns of Nuclear War Risk as Ukraine Talks Go On
  • U.S. Sees Russian Military Shortfalls After Austin, Blinken Trip
  • German Minister Says Full Embargo on Russian Oil ‘Manageable’

(All times CET)

Gazprom to Halt Gas Supplies Through Bulgaria (9:36 p.m.)

Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz was notified by Russia’s Gazprom Export that Gazprom will halt supplies as of April 27, the Bulgarian Energy Ministry said in a statement.

The ministry said Bulgaria has met its contract obligations and has taken steps to secure alterative supplies.

Putin Open to UN Role in Mariupol, Guterres Says (8:44 p.m.)

Putin “agreed in principle” to involvement by the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross in evacuating civilians from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, according to a UN statement after Secretary-General Guterres met with the Russian president in Moscow.

Putin said during the meeting that Russia isn’t refusing to negotiate with Ukrainians, according to an excerpt shown on state TV. Officials from both Russia and Ukraine have said the talks are at a dead end. Guterres plans to visit Ukraine on Wednesday.

China Hasn’t Yet Supported Russia’s Invasion, Blinken Says (7:48 p.m.)

The U.S. hasn’t yet seen China provide “significant” military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Blinken said China’s refusal to take a stand against the invasion is creating “significant reputational risk” for Beijing.

The top U.S. diplomat also said the U.S. military aid provided to Ukraine is evolving as its conflict with Russia enters a new phase. “The nature of this battle is changing to eastern Ukraine, to southern Ukraine. They’re adapting to that, we’re adapting to that,” he said.

Russia To Halt Gas Flows to Poland After Company Refuses to Pay in Rubles (7:16 p.m.)

Russia will halt gas flows to Poland on Wednesday, the Polish gas company PGNiG said. The company says it hasn’t got any outstanding payments and that the cutoff is a breach of its contract.

The company says it will not pay in rubles, as requested by Putin. Paying in rubles would breach sanctions, according to the European Union. 

Poland Says It Has Enough Gas in Storage and Supplies (6:28 p.m.)

Poland’s natural gas storage is filled to 76% of capacity and has sources of supply that protect the country’s security, Environment Minister Anna Moskwa said on Twitter. 

The Onet.pl news site reported earlier that Russia has halted gas deliveries to Poland. The authorities in Warsaw and PGNiG, the country’s dominant gas company, didn’t officially confirm the report. The Polish gas system operator said it was ready for potential cuts.

Austin Says U.S. Wants to See Russia Weakened (5:44 p.m.)

The U.S. wants to “make it harder for Russia to threaten its neighbors,” U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said after the Ramstein talks. 

Expanding on comments from the previous day that the U.S. goal is to leave “Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine,” Austin told reporters that Russia has had “substantial casualties,” lost a lot of military equipment and expended many precision-guided munitions since the invasion. 

“They are in fact, in terms of military capability, weaker than they started,” he said. The defense chief also called Russia’s “bluster” on a possible nuclear war dangerous.

Europe Gas Jumps 17% as Poland Braces for Cut in Flows (5:19 p.m.)

European gas surged as much as 17% and were 6.4% higher at 98.75 euros per megawatt-hour at 5:14 p.m. as Poland braced for a possible cut in Russian gas shipments.

Russia halted gas deliveries to Poland under the Yamal contract, the Onet.pl website reported, citing Polish government officials it didn’t name. Onet said it confirmed the news at PGNiG, Poland’s dominant gas company. 

Russia has demanded that Europe start paying for gas in rubles or it would halt supplies. A senior Polish energy official said earlier Tuesday his country won’t pay in the Russian currency.

Kremlin Weighs Suspending Regional Elections (4:32 p.m.)

The Kremlin is considering a plan to suspend regional elections set for September amid concerns about growing social tension due to the war and sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The proposal could be brought formally to Putin as soon as Wednesday, Kommersant and RBC newspapers reported. While polls show support for Putin has surged since the invasion, the discussions are an indication of the Kremlin’s worry about the rising political and economic costs as fighting continues and living standards decline.

Guterres Proposes Humanitarian Contact Group (4:04 p.m.)

UN chief Guterres proposed setting up a humanitarian contact group in Ukraine to help evacuate civilians trapped by the fighting, he said after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Guterres said he had a “very frank” discussion with Lavrov about the need to end the conflict now, while Lavrov countered that Moscow is still waiting for a response to its latest proposals in peace talks with Ukraine.

“There is one thing that is true and obvious and that no argument can change — we have not Ukrainian troops in the territory of the Russian Federation but we have Russian troops in the territory” of Ukraine, Guterres said.

Russian Stocks Surge as Commodities Prices Rise (3:53 p.m.)

The Russian equity benchmark snapped three days of declines as oil and metals prices gained. 

The MOEX Russia Index rose 5.3% as of 3:50 p.m., trimming its losses this year to 39%, with Gazprom, Lukoil, Novatek and Norilsk Nickel among the best performers.

Kremlin Sees Ukraine Breaking Up Into Several States (3:32 p.m.)

Ukraine may collapse into several states, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said, in the latest comments by a senior Kremlin official that appear to go beyond attempts to cement control over separatist-held territory.

Patrushev blamed the conflict on the “policy of the West” and Ukrainian authorities in an interview with the state-run Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper. 

Last week, a Russian general said the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine aims to secure control of the entire south of the country and suggested the campaign could extend into neighboring Moldova, which has since been hit by several explosions.

Moldova Says Transnistria Forces Behind Blasts (3:30 p.m.)

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu said forces within the separatist region of Transnistria that back Russia’s war in Ukraine were behind the recent blasts that rocked several sites there.

“We condemn any provocation and attempts to drag Moldova into actions that may endanger peace within the country,” Sandu told journalists as her government raised its level of security readiness at key institutions and infrastructure sites.

An observation mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe may arrive in Moldova this week to aid communication between the government in Chisinau and the self-proclaimed administration in Transnistria.

Putin Says Ukraine Should Tell Mariupol Troops to Surrender (2:55 p.m.) 

Ukraine should order its troops in Mariupol’s blockaded Azovstal steel plant to lay down their arms and surrender, Putin told Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Kremlin said in a statement. 

Putin declared last week that Russia had seized the city even as more than 2,000 Ukrainian troops remain holed up in the vast steel plant along with hundreds of civilians. The president ordered Russian troops not to storm the complex and seal it off instead. Ukrainian officials said at the weekend attacks continued on the plant and it wasn’t possible to relieve forces and citizens trapped there.

Germany Says Embargo on Russian Oil ‘Manageable’ (2:52 p.m.)

Germany has cut its reliance on Russian oil enough to make an embargo “manageable,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck told reporters in Warsaw.

Oil from Russia accounts for about 12% of German imports currently, down from 35% before the invasion, Habeck said.

Germany’s long-standing reluctance to stop buying Russian energy has put the country at odds with Ukraine, which accuses it of financing the Kremlin’s war machine.

Poland Says Won’t Pay for Gas in Rubles (12:00 p.m.)

Poland won’t pay for Russian gas deliveries in rubles, Piotr Naimski, the official in charge of strategic energy infrastructure, told reporters in Katowice.

Poland is prepared for various scenarios when it comes to Russian gas, and is ready to cut supplies at any moment if such a decision is made, Naimski said. The European Union has suggested that companies could keep paying for Russian gas in euros, saying that Moscow’s decree calling for payment in rubles would violate sanctions.

UN Projects Up to 8.3 Million Refugees (11:30 a.m.)

As many as 8.3 million refugees are expected to flee Ukraine by the end of this year, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

More than 5.2 million people have fled since Russia attacked on Feb. 24, a spokesperson for the agency said at a briefing in Geneva. The UN agency initially projected Russia’s invasion could create 4 million refugees. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs doubled its appeal for aid to $2.25 billion due to the “worsening situation.”

Transnistria Says Military Unit Attacked (11:15 a.m.)

Authorities in the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova reported an attack on a military unit Tuesday, hours after a pair of antennas broadcasting Russian radio were blown up, the latest episodes in a spike of violence reported in the Moscow-backed enclave in as many days.

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu called a meeting of the Supreme Defense Council in Chisinau Tuesday to discuss the incidents. Self-declared Transnistria, which borders Ukraine, also called a meeting of its Security Council, Russia’s Tass news service reported.

Poland Sanctions Russian Firms, Individuals (10:30 a.m.)

Poland imposed sanctions on 35 Russian companies and 15 businessmen in an attempt to undermine funding for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said at a news conference in Warsaw.

The sanctions, which include asset freezes and entry bans, target Polish units of Russia’s largest companies and their owners such as Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman and Eugene Kaspersky. The list may be expanded, Kaminski said.

Ukraine’s Allies Can Do More, Austin Says (10:10 a.m.)

Austin opened the meeting of top defense officials from more than 40 countries in Ramstein saying the aim is to establish a common understanding of Ukraine’s near-term defense needs. He added that NATO members and other allies can further strengthen coordination to help Kyiv repel Russian attacks in the east and south of the country.

“We can do more through our defense industrial bases to continue to help Ukraine defend itself even more capably,” Austin said. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov is attending the talks.

Germany to Send 50 Anti-Aircraft Tanks (10:00 a.m.)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government will approve delivery of 50 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine in Germany’s first step to supply heavy weapons to counter Russia’s invasion.

In remarks prepared for the Ramstein meeting, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said Germany will also increase military assistance to 2 billion euros ($2.1 billion) to pay for weapons that Ukraine orders from German defense contractors.

Oil Gives Up Gains (5:38 a.m.)

Oil has given up most of the gains since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February following a tumultuous period of trading. The war has led to the U.S. and U.K. banning Russian crude imports, while the European Union is considering similar measures as the conflict continues.

Biden Announces Choice for Ambassador (2:30 a.m.)

President Joe Biden announced he intends to nominate Bridget Brink as ambassador to Ukraine. Brink is a veteran diplomat who, according to a White House statement, “spent her twenty-five-year career in the Foreign Service focused on advancing U.S. policy in Europe and Eurasia.” 

On Twitter, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called Brink “an excellent choice to lead our diplomatic mission as we continue standing with the Ukrainian people, and we will move quickly to confirm her.”

Biden Weighs Adding Global Food Aid (1:02 a.m.)

The Biden administration is weighing swift action to ramp up global food assistance amid rising concern that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is stoking a hunger crisis in many poorer nations, according to people familiar with the discussions. White House spokespeople declined immediate comment.

The war has disrupted exports of wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other foods from Russia and Ukraine, and growing alarm about how to deal with rapidly rising food costs and insecurity is driving bipartisan support in Congress for providing as much as $5 billion in aid.

U.K. to Remove Tariffs on All Ukraine Imports (12:29 a.m.)

The U.K. said it would remove tariffs on imports covered by its trade agreement with Ukraine, following a pledge made by Prime Minister Boris Johnson during his visit to Kyiv this month. The measure will boost Ukraine’s exports of products including barley and poultry, the Department for International Trade said on its website.

The department also announced further bans on exports to Russia, covering “products and technology” that could be used for repressive purposes, such as interception and monitoring equipment.

Lavrov Warns of ‘Serious’ Risk of Nuclear Conflict (11:15 p.m.)

In an interview with Russia’s Channel 1 TV, Lavrov warned of the risk of nuclear war even though the world’s atomic powers made a joint declaration in January that such a conflict is unacceptable. “The danger is serious, the danger is real, and shouldn’t be underestimated,” the foreign minister said.

Lavrov said that talks with Ukraine’s negotiating team would continue even though many in Russia believe that the Kyiv government’s position is set in Washington and other Western capitals. He said it could be useful to hold talks with the U.S., “but we don’t see any interest from their side in contacts regarding Ukraine or other issues.”

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