(Bloomberg) — Stocks and US equity futures edged higher and bond yields extended their advance amid a debate about the scale of tightening of monetary policy to fight inflation.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbed 0.3% as investors weighed cheaper valuations a day after figures showed a record jump in euro-zone consumer prices. Among individual moves, bootmaker Dr. Martens Plc climbed after its pretax profit beat estimates. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both rose around 0.2%.
European bonds fell and Treasuries extended a decline, pushing 10-year yields closer to 2.9% as traders raised bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The dollar advanced against major peers.
Oil rose as investors assessed the future of OPEC+ unity, just as ministers from the group prepare to meet on Thursday to discuss its supply policy for July. Crude advanced about 10% in May, stoking more inflation worries.
Concerns that central-bank rate hikes may induce a recession are keeping investors guessing about the outlook for the economy as rising food and energy costs squeeze consumers, and volatility has picked up.
“It’s times like these when investors need a crystal ball,” wrote LPL Financial strategists Jeff Buchbinder and Ryan Detrick. “We fully acknowledge how tough it is to see the bull case for stocks right now, and a retest of recent lows is certainly possible, but this week we lay out the bull case for the second half of the year. It starts with inflation.”
Asian equities traded mixed, with stocks climbing in Japan as the yen weakened toward 130 per dollar. A pullback in technology stocks and reopening challenges were a drag in Hong Kong. Sluggish Chinese manufacturing data and the government’s pursuit of Covid Zero weighed on shares and the yuan.
President Joe Biden used a rare meeting with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to declare that he’s respecting the central bank’s independence – while simultaneously shifting responsibility for taming decades-high inflation ahead of the November midterms. The meeting came ahead of US payroll numbers Friday.
“There are heightened concerns around inflation and where central banks are likely to go trying to combat inflation,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco Advisers chief global markets strategist, said on Bloomberg Radio. “This has gone from just an inflation scare to a growth scare. Uncertainty has grown.”
How will markets be affected by the Fed’s quantitative tightening? QT officially starts Wednesday and is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.
Here are some key events to watch this week:
- The Federal Reserve is set to start shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet Wednesday
- The Fed releases its Beige Book report on regional economic conditions Wednesday
- New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak at separate events Wednesday
- OPEC+ virtual meeting Wednesday
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the economic outlook Thursday
- US May employment report Friday
- The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization releases its monthly food price index at a time of maximum concern about global supplies on Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 8:26 a.m. London time
- Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.3%
- Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.7%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
- The euro was little changed at $1.0725
- The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 129.46 per dollar
- The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 6.6954 per dollar
- The British pound was little changed at $1.2601
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 2.88%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.14%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.12%
Commodities
- Brent crude rose 1.4% to $117.24 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
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