(Bloomberg) — Tropical storm watches have been posted in the Florida Keys, including Key West, as Ian continues to churn through the Caribbean to possibly blast into Florida’s mainland as a Category 4 hurricane by midweek.
(Bloomberg) — Tropical storm watches have been posted in the Florida Keys, including Key West, as Ian continues to churn through the Caribbean to possibly blast into Florida’s mainland as a Category 4 hurricane by midweek.
Despite a dip in speed, forecasters still expect Ian’s winds to reach 130 miles per hour (209 kilometers per hour) by Wednesday. The problem forecasters are struggling with is exactly where it will make landfall in Florida, possibly anywhere from the Panhandle south to Tampa Bay.
Ian’s winds decreased slightly to 45 mph about 495 miles southeast of Cuba’s western tip, down from 50 mph earlier, according to a US National Hurricane Center advisory at 5 p.m.
“Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual,” Brad Reinhart, a hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his outlook.
“Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week,” he said.
This means Ian could slam into sparsely populated areas in the Florida Panhandle south of Tallahassee or strike Tampa, St. Petersburg and possibly hit citrus groves. The path of the storm could cause travel delays, with some airlines warning customers flights could be canceled as the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico into the southern US.
A direct strike on Tampa from a major hurricane would push a wall of water into Tampa Bay, flooding the city and its suburbs and causing as much as $30 billion in losses and damage, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research.
Track Ian’s latest path
President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida on Saturday, freeing federal disaster aid to the state. He also postponed a trip to Florida scheduled for Tuesday that included a Democratic National Committee rally in Orlando. Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency across all of Florida and warned residents to prepare.
One of the problems with determining exactly where Ian will hit is a larger low-pressure trough over the eastern US, said Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger. Some computer models predict that system will pull away earlier, which would put Ian on a more easterly coast threatening Tampa, while others have it remaining in place longer, which places the target on the Panhandle.
A strike near Tampa would come probably late Wednesday with Ian still a major hurricane on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale, while a Panhandle landfall would likely be toward the end of the week at Category 1 or 2 strength.
Truchelut also said no one should underestimate Ian’s current lack of strength because it sometimes takes a storm a little while to rapidly intensify, but once the process starts it can “make up for lost time once underway,” he added.
Before it reaches Florida, Ian will bring “significant wind and storm surge impacts in western Cuba,” the hurricane center said. Parts of the island could get up to 16 inches (40 centimeters) of rain and it’s possible Ian would push ocean levels 14 feet (4 meters) above normal tide levels.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
