Ukraine Latest: Kyiv Sees Growing Offensive Threat From North

Ukrainians were warned of rolling blackouts because of damage to the country’s power infrastructure from Russian missile attacks this month, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged people to use as little electricity as possible. Camping stoves, generators and winter underwear are in high demand.

(Bloomberg) — Ukrainians were warned of rolling blackouts because of damage to the country’s power infrastructure from Russian missile attacks this month, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged people to use as little electricity as possible. Camping stoves, generators and winter underwear are in high demand. 

The UK defense secretary said a Russian warplane in late September fired a missile “in the vicinity of” an unarmed RAF jet flying in international airspace over the Black Sea. 

Weeks after Russia and Belarus announced the formation of a new joint force, and days after the force started to assemble in Belarus, Ukraine’s army sees rising military threats from the north. 

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) 

Key Developments

  • Putin’s Belarusian Ally Lets Him Build Up Forces Near Ukraine Again 
  • US Calls for Security Council Briefing on Russia, Iranian Drones
  • Ukraine Faces Rolling Blackouts After Attacks on Power Stations
  • Ukraine’s New Central Banker Focuses on IMF Aid: Decision Guide
  • Italy’s Rising Coalition Dealt Blow After Berlusconi Lauds Putin

On the Ground

Russia hit Mykolaiv and the surrounding region with C-300 missiles on Thursday morning, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the president’s office, said on Telegram. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near nine settlements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including Bakhmut, Ukraine’s General Staff said. Russia hit an industrial facility and energy infrastructure in the Kryvyi Rih district of the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight, inflicting serious damage, local authorities said on Telegram. 

(All times CET)

Ukraine Sees Growing Threat of Russian Offensive From North (4:15 p.m.)

Ukraine’s armed forces see a rising threat of a fresh new military offensive from the north, where Russian and Belarusian troops have assembled a “joint force,” pokesman Oleksiy Hromov said Thursday at a video briefing. 

Putin’s Ally Lets Him Build Up Forces Near Ukraine Again 

Increasingly bellicose rhetoric from Russian and Belarusian leadership has accompanied the deployment of forces in Belarus, which started last weekend, he said. 

The offensive may be repositioned to the northwest part of the Belarus-Ukraine border — that is, closer to Poland — in a bid to cut the main logistical arteries supplying weapons to Ukraine from allies, Hromov said. 

Read more: Ukraine Army Sees Growing Threat of Russian Offensive From North

Turkey Wants Another Russian-Built Atomic Plant (4:08 p.m.)

Turkey asked Russia to build its second nuclear power plant, in the latest sign of closer economic ties even as the US and its allies try to isolate the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine. 

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made the request in talks last week in Kazakhstan with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, their fourth meeting in as many months, according to people familiar with the situation. 

Read more: Turkey Asks Russia to Build Another Nuclear Plant, Defying US

Russia Will be Snubbed at Atomic-Energy Summit in Washington (3:45 p.m.) 

Russia will lose its pace on stage at a key  atomic summit in Washington next week, as US authorities seek ways to limit the influence of Kremlin-controlled nuclear fuel and technology suppliers on the global market.

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that executives from Rosatom Corp. and Russia’s industry regulator were dropped from the agenda. White House officials have been considering for months ways to reduce the Kremlin’s influence on global nuclear markets. 

Read more: Russia Removed From Nuclear-Energy Stage at Washington Summit 

Ukrainians Stock Up on Power Banks, Generators (3:48 p.m.)

Demand for power banks, generators and candles jumped in the week since Kremlin forces launched widespread attacks on power infrastructure, said Prom.ua, one of Ukraine’s biggest online sellers. 

“The demand for electric generators rose fivefold, and the average check grew to 20,000 hryvnia ($541),” the retailer said in an emailed comment. 

Gas cylinders, headlamps and camping stoves are also in demand, along with thermal underwear. In September, radiation meters and preventative medicine were the most-coveted items, Prom.ua said.

Push For New EU Sanctions on Russia (2:41 p.m.) 

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland proposed broadening EU sanctions on Russia by adding a ban on cooperating with Russia on nuclear energy, according to a document seen by Bloomberg News. The nations also want to ban the sale of real estate to Russian citizens and companies and limit the concessions that Belgium previously won on the import of steel products from Russia.

The ninth sanctions package should broaden the ban on information and communication technology services to include computer software and extend the scope of a ban on business services to cover marketing and opinion poll services, according to the document. 

“Schemes involving marketing and leasing services are regularly used in Russia as a cover-up to facilitate flows of a large scale providing funds for military sector,” the countries said.

Ukraine Expects Electrical Equipment Next Week (2:10 p.m.)

Generators, components and spare parts needed to replace equipment damaged by recent Russian strikes are expected to start arriving in Ukraine next week from Italy, France, Lithuania, Finland, Germany and Poland, Ukraine’s foreign minister said. 

“The equipment will help to ensure uninterrupted functioning of Ukrainian households, hospitals and schools,” Dmytro Kuleba said in a statement.

Separately, on Twitter, Kuleba welcomed the EU’s moves against Iran for its provision of drones used by Russia in recent attacks on energy infrastructure and other targets. 

Ukraine Sanctions Thousands of Russian Citizens, Companies (2 p.m.) 

Ukraine sanctioned 1,374 Russian companies and companies affiliated with Russia, and 2,507 individuals, mainly Russian citizens, in decrees signed on Wednesday. 

Billionaire Roman Abramovich was sanctioned, with the proviso that the measures only take effect after an exchange of prisoners and bodies of deceased soldiers between Ukraine and Russia is complete. 

Among others, Ukraine sanctioned billionaire Mikhail Fridman; Petr Aven; Eugene Kaspersky, CEO of the cybersecurity firm Kaspersky Lab, and the daughter of President Vladimir Putin, Ekaterina Tikhonova.  

UK Says Russia Fired Missile Near RAF Jet in September (1:34 p.m.) 

A Russian aircraft released a missile on Sept. 29 near an unarmed British plane patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told parliament during an update on the situation in Ukraine. 

The UK temporarily suspended patrols after the “potentially dangerous” incident and raised its concerns with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Russia, in an Oct. 10 response, blamed a “technical malfunction” by its fighter jet, Wallace said. After consulting with allies, “I have restarted routine patrols but this time escorted by fighter aircraft,” he added. 

Russia’s defense ministry doesn’t immediately respond to requests from Bloomberg News for comment. 

Ukraine Keeps Key Rate Steady (1:04 p.m.)

Ukraine’s central bank, as expected, kept its benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 25% as the body’s new governor presses ahead with negotiations with the IMF on a financial lifeline for the war-battered economy. 

“Continued cooperation with international partners remains an important factor in maintaining the Ukrainian economy during the full-scale war and post-war recovery,” the Kyiv-based bank said in a statement. 

Russia Controls Only 1.8% of Kharkiv Region, Official Says (12:58 p.m.)

Russia retains control over 1.8% of the area around Kharkiv in the east of Ukraine, Kharkiv Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram. 

“Since September, our military has expelled the occupiers from 544 settlements in the region. Only 1.8% of the region’s territory remains under temporary occupation — that’s 32 settlements,” Syniehubov told. 

Ukraine’s armed forces and local authorities have formed three lines of defence in liberated areas, he said. Kremlin troops continue “limited assaults” in a bit to recapture lost territory, according to the Institute for Study of War. 

Germany Probing Fire at Refugee Shelter (11:45 a.m.)

German authorities are investigating a suspected arson attack which local media said almost completely destroyed a property in the east of the country housing Ukrainian refugees.

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said in a tweet that if arson is confirmed the perpetrators would “be prosecuted with the utmost severity” and thanked emergency services for rescuing all of the residents from the building. 

“People who found shelter with us from Putin’s war had to be rescued from the flames,” Faeser wrote. “It is very fortunate that everyone was unharmed.”

Italy’s Rising Coalition Dealt Blow After Berlusconi Lauds Putin (11:30 a.m.)

Giorgia Meloni, the right-wing leader poised to form a new Italian government, said she’d give up on the fledgling coalition if her allies can’t commit to supporting Ukraine along with Italy’s European Union and NATO partners. 

Meloni commented after audio surfaced of coalition partner Silvio Berlusconi saying he rekindled his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and laying the blame of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. 

EU Adopts Sanctions Against Iran for Drone Sales to Russia (11:23 a.m.)

Bloomberg reported the measures targeting three Iranian generals and Shahed Aviation Industries, a company responsible for the design and development of the Shahed series of Iranian drones that have been supplied to Russia and are currently being used in Ukraine. Iran denies sending weapons to Russia.

EU States Split on Forming War Crimes Tribunal for Ukraine (10:33 a.m.)

Some EU member states are wary about setting up a war crimes tribunal for atrocities committed in Ukraine, following what some said were mixed experiences of the court set to deal with such crimes committed during the 1990s in the former Yugoslavia, according to a person familiar with the issue.

An early version of the EU summit conclusions contained a reference suggesting a special tribunal to investigate crimes of aggression be formed, but the reference to the “special tribunal” was removed in a subsequent draft after opposition from a few countries. Some nations are not pushing to have it restored.

NATO Chief Calls on Iran to Not Back Russia Against Ukraine (10:21 a.m.)

While NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said “every indication points to Iran supplying Russia with drones,” he declined to confirm reports the country is also sending missiles to Russia, saying he wouldn’t go into specific intelligence.

Sweden to Work With Turkey on Support for NATO Bid (10:15 a.m.)

Sweden’s new cabinet will “redouble efforts” to work with Turkey to allay its concerns so that it’s able to ratify the Nordic country’s accession to NATO, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters in Brussels. He added that he’s prepared to visit Ankara as soon as possible, with preparations for the trip already being made.

EU Leaders to Discuss Ukraine’s Emergency Needs (9:41 a.m.)

European Union leaders meeting in Brussels will discuss how to help Ukraine’s emergency energy needs following Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure this month, according to people familiar with the matter.

The issue was a late addition to the agenda for the summit starting Thursday, the people said. Kyiv has provided a list of its most urgent needs, covering dozens of items such as circuit breakers, disconnecters, transformers and relay protection automation devices. 

Other requirements include surge arresters, aerials, power cables, vehicles, as well as several types of switches and high-voltage inputs, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.

Grid Operator Warns of Possible Blackouts Across Ukraine (7:57 a.m.)

Ukrenergo, the state-run energy company, warned about possible blackouts all over Ukraine and urged citizens to reduce electricity consumption on Thursday. 

“Russian constant missile attacks destroy our energy infrastructure, and energy workers need time to restore it,” the company said on Telegram. “We need to be very conscious and frugal with our electricity consumption in order to get through the coming winter as well as possible.”

US Hands Out Charges in Plot to Buy Chips for Russia (2:05 a.m.)

The US Justice Department accused seven people of evading US sanctions as part of a purported plot to sell Venezuelan oil to Russia and China and use the proceeds to buy black market chips for Russia to install in high-tech weapons on the battlefields in Ukraine.

The five Russians and two Venezuelans, “knowingly sought to conceal the theft of US military technology and profit off black market oil,” FBI Assistant Director in Charge Michael Driscoll said in announcing the charges in New York. “This network schemed to procure sophisticated technology in direct support of a floundering Russian Federation military industrial complex.”

Zelenskiy Urges Citizens to Conserve Power (1:40 a.m.)

Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians to use as little electricity as possible on Thursday after electrical grid operator Ukrenergo warned of rolling blackouts because of damage to power infrastructure from Russian missile attacks.

“It is very important energy is consumed with awareness tomorrow,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly address. “We are preparing for all possible scenarios in the light of approaching winter season. We proceed from the fact that Russian terror will be directed at energy facilities until, with the help of our partners, we can shoot down 100% of enemy’s missiles and drones.”

All regions in Ukraine may face four-hour cutoffs between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m., a necessary step because of a shortage of power generation, Ukrenergo said.

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