BERLIN (Reuters) – German exports fell more than forecast in October, official data showed on Friday, as high inflation and supply chain snags hit demand in key trading partners, further raising the spectre of recession for Europe’s largest economy.
Exports declined by 0.6% on the month, twice as much as analysts predicted in a Reuters poll, the data from the Federal Statistics Office showed.
Germany’s top export partner, the United States, saw the sharpest fall in German exports at 3.9%, while exports to other European Union member states were down 2.4%.
Imports posted their sharpest drop in October since January at 3.7%, leading to a higher trade balance of 6.9 billion euros ($7.3 billion). Imports had been forecast to drop 0.4%.
The statistics office publishes a detailed table with more economic data.
“Not only German consumers, but also the export industry is facing more difficult times,” said DekaBank economist Andreas Scheurle, noting the world economy was cooling under the weight of higher prices and interest rates.
The German chambers of commerce and industry (DIHK) said last month Germany’s exports were likely to fall 2% next year due to a sluggish global economy, with nearly half of German companies that sell abroad expecting an economic downturn.
Also last month, German industrial group Thyssenkrupp warned its sales and profit would “nosedive” next year as high inflation and energy costs are compounded by expected recession in Europe.
However, data released last week showed the German economy grew slightly more in the third quarter than suggested by preliminary figures, adding to signs that a coming recession may not hit as hard as initially feared.
Near-full gas storages in Germany have eased fears of possible rationing in industry, while the 0.4% growth in the third quarter pointed to a milder recession than many economists first expected.
A survey published on Thursday showed Germany’s manufacturing sector reported continued weaker demand in November but the downturn slowed as signs of fewer material shortages fuelled hopes that cost pressures could also ease.
($1 = 0.9502 euros)
(Reporting by Rachel More, Rene Wagner and Miranda Murray, Writing by Paul Carrel; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky and Mark Potter)
