Turkey’s state statistics agency removed a senior official overseeing the calculation of a key measure of output after worse-than-expected economic data, a move it said was a rotation.
(Bloomberg) — Turkey’s state statistics agency removed a senior official overseeing the calculation of a key measure of output after worse-than-expected economic data, a move it said was a rotation.
Cihat Erce Isbasar, the chairman of the national accounts directorate, was reassigned to a new department late last month, Bloomberg reported Monday, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity as it hadn’t been announced.
Isbasar declined to comment.
The Turkish Statistical Institute, known as TurkStat, said Tuesday the decision was unrelated to data calculations.
“Periodically, there are needs for internal rotation. Based on this need, there has been a rotation within statistics producing directorates,” it said in a statement according to the state-run Anadolu Agency.
Turkstat said it would take legal action against “attempts to form a negative perception” of the agency with “slander and lies.”
The statistics office had not responded to earlier requests for comment.
Turkey’s economy grew at the slowest pace in the third quarter since a contraction at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, TurkStat data showed on Nov. 30. The deceleration was at odds with the aim of economic policies set out by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of elections later this year.
Juicing the Economy
The long-standing leader has pushed the central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate to encourage cheap loans, a move intended to unlock investment and production. Meanwhile, inflation — including food prices — has soared, aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The year-on-year gain in gross domestic product of 3.9% was still one of the best performances in the Group of 20, but came in below the predictions of most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It also compared unfavorably with the prior three months, when Turkey’s GDP expanded by a revised 7.7%.
TurkStat said in its GDP data that revisions would be made in August, after elections scheduled for June.
Annual GDP for all of 2022 will be announced before the elections, and the figures will indicate the extent to which Erdogan’s policies were successful in delivering on his promises of economic growth.
Inflation Controversy
Isbasar’s departure marks the latest leadership change at the statistics agency. Two senior officials overseeing inflation calculations left their positions last year, while the head of the institution was removed before completing a year in office.
Turkey’s inflation peaked at more than 85% last year before declining to nearly 65% in December. Factory-gate prices surged to triple digits before slowing to 98%, according to TurkStat data.
Still, some economists and opposition parties have contested the numbers, saying inflation is higher than announced by the agency.
Turkey’s Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati denied claims of wrongdoing at the agency after year-end inflation data was reported at less than the lowest economist estimates.
Read more: Senior Turkish Statistician Left Post Before May Inflation Print
“No one can announce data off the top of their head about such numbers,” he said in a recent televised interview.
(Updates with comments from TurkStat in first, third and fourth paragraphs)
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