The dollar’s rally from an eight-month low could be fleeting as the growing view that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate hikes is likely to keep selling pressure on the US currency.
(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s rally from an eight-month low could be fleeting as the growing view that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate hikes is likely to keep selling pressure on the US currency.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index made slight gains on Monday, but remains down nearly 2% since the start of the year as investors have sold the greenback in droves. Easing US inflation expectations has prompted funds to ditch the ultimate haven asset, triggering a rebound in most major currencies.
“Just two weeks into the year, and it feels like the big ‘buy dollar’ trade of 2022 is turning into the hottest macro short now,” said Patrick Bennett, strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong. In addition to the Fed, “we are also being driven by a reversal in China with Zero Covid scrapped well ahead of when it was expected.”
The dollar’s fortunes have suffered a dramatic U-turn in recent months as funds from JPMorgan Asset Management to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the Fed will soon rein in the pace of its tightening. Traders are now expecting the Fed fund rate to peak at 4.94% from more than 5% earlier this month.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped as much as 0.4% to reach the lowest since April 2022 early on Monday, before clawing back losses to trade 0.1% higher on the day. Yet more selling may be in store this year, with strategists at Morgan Stanley forecasting the euro to end the year at 1.15, ratcheting up its previous call for 1.08.
“Macro forces once constraining USD weakness are now amplifying it,” they wrote in a note. “Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning, and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage.”
The greenback’s decline comes as data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show leveraged funds have cut yen shorts to the lowest level since February 2021. They also trimmed bearish bets on the Aussie while switching to net longs on the New Zealand dollar.
Fed Pause
The resumption of economic activity in China is bolstering demand for risk-sensitive currencies, with the Australian dollar rising above 70 US cents for the first time since August on Monday. Indonesia’s rupiah climbed more than 1%, the South Korean won advanced 0.8% and the offshore yuan rose to the strongest since July.
“The dollar is under pressure as the market becomes more confident a Fed pause is coming,” said Rodrigo Catril, strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. The rise of the yuan is “just as important” for commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar as risk sentiment improves, he said.
–With assistance from Michael G. Wilson and Naomi Tajitsu.
(Updates dollar move, adds Morgan Stanley forecast)
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