BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s customs administration has unexpectedly revised down the value of March exports by a wide margin, economists said, suggesting the country’s trade earlier this year may have been weaker than initially thought.
The General Administration of Customs lowered the March exports figure by $10.55 billion, revising the month’s year-on-year growth to 11.4% from the prior 14.8%, the latest data tables on its website, reviewed by Reuters on Friday, showed.
The original March data was stronger than expected, but exports lost steam and have been falling since May. Economists who previously cast doubt on the strength of the March data don’t expect exports to recover significantly this year.
Earlier this week, customs data showed July exports contracted 14.5%, steeper than the previous month’s 12.4% fall, reflecting poor global demand and weighing on the flagging recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
This large data revision is rare, but it will not have any significant impact on trade statistics or gross domestic product numbers, Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Reuters on Friday.
“One possibility is that the retrospective revisions related to the crackdown on fake trade, in which exporters ‘cook up’ trade that is actually non-existent or inflate the value of shipped goods to get tax rebates.”
By country, March exports to the United States have been revised down by $2.2 billion, to South Korea down by $412.9 million and down by $109.9 million to Japan, according to Reuters’ calculations.
The March revision was the biggest cut on record, according to some economists.
The reduction of the March figure is equal to around 44% of 2022’s total exports revision. In July, the customs administration slashed $24.21 billion from last year’s overall outbound shipments, creating a lower base for year-on-year comparisons.
The General Administration of Customs did not respond to Reuters’ inquiry on the reason for the data revision.
ANZ’s senior China strategist Xing Zhaopeng said last month’s revision to 2022’s annual figures may help elevate 2023’s data by about one percentage point in a year-on-year comparison.
(Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; additional reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
