Fed hawks and doves in their own words

(Reuters) -The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.

The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.

All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.

The following chart shows officials’ latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.

For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

  Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Michelle

Harker, Fed Chair, Atlanta Fed Bowman,

Philadelphia permanent President, 2024 Governor,

Fed voter: “I don’t voter: Now permanent

President, think that it is expects one voter:”Whi

2026 voter: likely based on rate cut this le the

When it comes the data we have year, in the current

to a rate that the next fourth quarter, stance of

cut, “I think move that we down from two monetary

we’re close, make will be a previously policy

give us a rate hike…It is (April 3, appears to

couple of more likely … 2024). “We’re be at a

meetings.” we hold the just going to restrictiv

Feb 22, 2024 policy rate have to be e level, I

where it is..” patient and remain

May 14, 2024 wait until willing to

inflation gives raise the

us signals that federal

it is more funds rate

robustly at a

heading towards future

2%.” May 9, meeting

2024 should the

incoming

data

indicate

that

progress

on

inflation

has

stalled or

reversed.”

May 3,

2024

  John Williams, Loretta Mester,  

New York Fed Cleveland Fed

President, President, 2024

permanent voter: voter*: Three

Three rate cuts rate cuts in

in 2024 is “a 2024 “feels

reasonable kind about right.”

of starting (Feb 29, 2024)

point.” (Feb 28, “It’s too early

2024) “Eventuall to really

y we’ll have conclude that

rate cuts.” May we stalled out

6, 2024 or that

inflation is

going to

reverse.” May

14, 2024

    Philip Thomas Barkin,  

Jefferson, Vice Richmond Fed

Chair: “My President, 2024

baseline outlook voter: “I do

continues to be tend to imagine

that inflation that we’re

will decline going to need a

further, with little more

the policy rate edge off of

held steady at demand to get

its current all the way” to

level.” April 2% inflation.

16, 2024 May 6, 2024

    Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid,  

Vice Chair of Kansas City Fed

Supervision, President, 2025

permanent voter: voter: “I am

“It’s very early prepared to be

to say whether patient.” May

we end up with a 14, 2024

‘soft landing’

or not.” Feb 14,

2024

    Christopher Neel Kashkari,  

Waller, Minneapolis Fed

Governor, President, 2026

permanent voter: voter: Penciled

“There is no in two 2024

rush to cut the rate cuts in

policy rate.” March. “We

March 27, 2024 probably need

to sit here for

a while longer

until we figure

out where

underlying

inflation is

headed.” May

15, 2024

    Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan,  

Governor, Dallas Fed

permanent voter: President, 2026

“Fully restoring voter: “I think

price stability it’s just too

may take a early to think

cautious about cutting

approach to rates.” May 10,

easing monetary 2024

policy over

time.” March 25,

2024

Adriana Kugler,

Governor,

permanent voter:

“If disinflation

and labor market

conditions

proceed as I am

currently

expecting, then

some lowering of

the policy rate

this year would

be appropriate.”

April 3, 2024

    Mary Daly, San    

Francisco Fed

President, 2024

voter: Three

rate cuts this

year is “a very

reasonable

baseline.”

(April 2, 2024)

“I’m in a

wait-and-see

mode.” May 9,

2024.

    Austan Goolsbee,    

Chicago Fed

President, 2025

voter: At the

median Fed

expectation for

three rate cuts

in 2024 (March

25, 2024). ”We

clearly hit a

bump at the

start of this

year, and we’ve

just got to get

comfort that

it’s not a sign

of a

reacceleration

of the economy.”

May 3, 2024

    Susan Collins,    

Boston Fed

President, 2025

voter: Expects

“in the range of

two” rate cuts

for 2024 (April

11, 2024) “I do

think that

holding in this

restrictive

range for longer

will in an

orderly way”

help to slow the

economy. May 8,

2024

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who started as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.

*Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1

March ’24 0 1 11 5 1

Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1

Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

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