Factbox-Brokerages lift S&P 500 target on hopes for soft landing, rate cuts

(Reuters) -Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for the U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield

target

Goldman Sachs 5,600 1.08 150 7.20

4.25%

Morgan Stanley 5,400(for 1 140 7.5

June 2025)

UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25

Wealth

Management*

Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160

Investment

Institute

Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20

J.P. Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25

BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 158 7.45

Research

Deutsche Bank 5,500 4.60% 1.07 135

Citigroup 5,600 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25

HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10

Oppenheimer

5,500

UBS Global 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160 7.15

Research*

Evercore ISI 6,000

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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U.S. INFLATION

U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in May amid cheaper gasoline, but inflation likely remains too high for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates before September against the backdrop of a persistently strong labor market.

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs

2.8% 2.7%

Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%

Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%

Investment

Institute

Barclays 2.70% 2.4%

J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%

BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.10%

Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%

HSBC 3.4%

—–

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA

AREA

Goldman 2.7% 2.6% 5.0% 0.8% 0.9% 6.9%

Sachs

Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%

Stanley

UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%

Wealth

Management*

Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%

J.P.Morgan 2.6% 5.2% 0.8% 6.5%

2.3% 1.0%

BofA Global 3.2% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.7% 5.8%

Research

Deutsche 3.2% 2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 0.8% 7.0%

Bank

Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%

HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%

UBS Global 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.7% 7.0%

Research*

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Anil D’Silva, Janane Venkatraman)

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