(Reuters) – Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500, spurred by expectations of a “soft landing” for the economy and growing odds the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY
target yield
target
Goldman Sachs 5,600 4.25% 1.08 150 7.20
Morgan Stanley 5,400(for 1 140 7.5
June 2025)
UBS Global 5,200 3.85% 1.09 148 7.25
Wealth
Management*
Wells Fargo 5,100-5,300 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10 156-160
Investment
Institute
Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P. Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25
BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.12 158 7.45
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,500 4.60% 1.07 135
Citigroup 5,600 1.02 135 7.25
4.20%
HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 145 7.10
Oppenheimer
5,900
UBS Global 5,600 4.0% 1.05 160 7.15
Research*
Evercore ISI 6,000
RBC 5,700
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
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U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in four years in June amid cheaper gasoline and moderating rents, firmly putting disinflation back on track and drawing the Federal Reserve another step closer to cutting interest rates in September.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.8% 2.7%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%
Wells Fargo 3.0% 2.60%
Investment
Institute
Barclays
2.9% 2.6%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%
BofA Global 3.5% 2.8%
Research
Deutsche Bank 3.10%
Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%
HSBC 3.4%
—–
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.7% 0.8% 6.9%
Sachs
2.5% 4.9% 1.2%
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 3.1% 2.4% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 7.0%
Wealth
Management*
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 6.2%
5.0% 1.1%
J.P.Morgan 2.6% 2.3% 0.8% 1.0% 6.5%
4.7%
BofA Global 3.2% 2.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.7% 5.8%
Research
Deutsche 3.2% 2.4% 5.2% 0.9% 7.0%
Bank
1.2%
Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%
HSBC 2.6% 2.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.4% 6.3%
UBS Global 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.7% 7.0%
Research*
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Anil D’Silva, Janane Venkatraman and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)
