By David Milliken
LONDON (Reuters) – A jump in British household saving since the COVID-19 pandemic appears here to stay and cannot be fully explained by higher interest rates or unemployment fears, according to the country’s statistics agency.
Analysis published on Monday from the Office for National Statistics showed Britain’s households saved 11.1% of their income in the first three months of this year, up from 5.8% in the final quarter of 2019. This was the highest rate since 2010, excluding the start of the pandemic when it spiked to 27.4%.
Britain’s persistent increase in the household savings rate contrasts with the United States and, to a lesser extent, the euro zone.
The U.S. personal savings rate is just under 4%, around 3 percentage points lower than in 2019. The euro zone’s savings rate of 14.7% is above Britain’s, but has increased by less since 2019.
The savings rate represents the percentage of household income after taxes and benefits which is not spent. Employers’ pension contributions and changes in the value of retirement savings also count as income.
Excess savings built up by British households since the pandemic are now in the range of 143 billion to 338 billion pounds ($185 billion to $437 billion), the ONS said.
“UK households have been reluctant to spend these accumulated savings, unlike in the U.S. where it has been an important factor in supporting household consumption and economic growth,” it added.
TEMPORARY OR PERMANENT?
Much of this saving was held in cash rather than longer-term investments, suggesting British households did not view it as permanent, the ONS said.
Whether past savings are spent – or if the current high savings rate falls back to its pre-pandemic level – is important both to retailers and the Bank of England.
Retail volumes are still just below pre-pandemic levels, and a decision to spend past savings or a lower savings rate in future would boost consumer demand and could fuel inflation.
Of the increased saving rate since 2019, ONS analysis suggested more than 40% reflected higher interest rates and changed earnings expectations.
Bank of England interest rates rose from 0.1% to 5.25% between December 2021 and August 2023, making it costlier to borrow and more rewarding to save. Financial markets expect the central bank to cut rates only slowly over next 12 months.
Under 10% of the increase in the savings rate was extra precautionary saving driven by fears of unemployment.
But that left almost half the increase due to ‘other factors’ which the ONS said could include geopolitical worries or economic concerns not directly related to unemployment or interest rates.
“The harsh reality of income loss and economic instability during the COVID-19 pandemic served as a stark reminder of the perils of lacking adequate savings,” said Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at fund platform Interactive Investor.
($1 = 0.7733 pounds)
(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Christina Fincher)
