By Rodrigo Campos and Marc Jones
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Venezuela’s bonds and those of state oil firm PDVSA fell deeper into distressed territory on Monday after both President Nicolas Maduro and opposition rival Edmundo Gonzalez claimed victory in Sunday’s presidential election.
Most Venezuelan bonds were down at least 1 cent in price, with the 2019 and 2038 maturities down 1.75 cents each, according to LSEG data. The PDVSA 2022 was bid at 14.6 cents on the dollar, down more than 2 cents on the day.
Venezuela’s national electoral authority said early on Monday that Maduro had won a third term in power with 51% of the vote despite exit polls pointing to an opposition win. The United States said it had “serious concerns” about the result, which was also called into question by regional democracies.
The developments took few by surprise, however, given that Maduro’s 2018 reelection was also considered fraudulent by the United States, among others.
“So far everything is in line with expectations,” KNG Securities analyst Bruno Gennari said. “Maduro has announced that he has won (the election) and the opposition has challenged it. … This scenario, for me, was 99% expected.”
Bond prices had risen in anticipation of the vote, with polls having shown a comfortable lead by the opposition. A regime change is seen by many analysts as necessary for the removal of U.S. sanctions that currently make a debt restructuring all but impossible.
“With Maduro set to remain in office, prospects for the sort of transformative change that would have likely followed an opposition victory would appear to have vanished – at least for now,” said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist and global head of fixed income research at Tellimer in London.
“To the extent that prices had discounted some prospect of regime change that would be positive for the bonds, we expect there could be downward pressure on prices in the near term as some investors lose patience and in particular tourist investors look to exit.”
Emerging markets strategist Donato Guarino reiterated Citi Research’s long on Venezuela’s 2022 issue, citing a possibility of a restructuring under a Maduro administration, the small likelihood of further sanctions and Venezuela’s strategic importance to the United States as an oil producer.
“The Maduro win remains in line with Citi’s base case scenario, and in our view, we think a debt restructuring led by the Maduro administration remains a possibility, where the U.S. position on the elections and results will be key.”
That bond fell 1.5 cents on Monday to trade at 20.25 as per LSEG data.
(Reporting by Marc Jones and Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Libby George, Mark Heinrich, Christina Fincher and Mark Porter)
