By Tannur Anders and Bhargav Acharya
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) -South Africa’s inflation dropped more than forecast to a three-year low in July, nearing the level the central bank aims for and cementing analysts’ expectations for an interest rate cut next month.
Consumer inflation fell to 4.6% year on year in July from 5.1% in June, statistics agency data showed on Wednesday, whereas analysts polled by Reuters had forecast annual inflation of 4.9% last month.
The South African Reserve Bank likes to see inflation around 4.5%, the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target range, but it has been above that level since mid-2021.
Before the latest inflation print, most economists in a Reuters poll had predicted the SARB would reduce its main interest rate by 25 basis points at its next policy announcement on Sept. 19, and a cut now looks more likely.
“The SARB has definitely run out of excuses to not cut interest rates… and might have to consider a bigger cut,” independent economist Elize Kruger said.
July’s data “seals the deal” on a September rate cut, said David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics, adding he thought inflation could fall below 4% by the end of the year.
The central bank had said at its July meeting that it expected inflation to dip below 4.5% over the next few quarters, mainly due to falling food and fuel costs.
July’s data showed inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell to 4.5% from 4.6% in June, while fuel decreased to 4.5% from 7.6% in June.
Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, came in at 4.3% in July versus 4.5% in June, Statistics South Africa added.
(Reporting by Tannur Anders and Bhargav AcharyaEditing by Alexander Winning, Alison Williams and Toby Chopra)
