By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -Four Federal Reserve policymakers on Monday expressed support for further interest-rate cuts, but appeared to differ on how fast or far they believe any cuts should go.
Three of them, citing the strength of the economy and an uncertain outlook, expressed a preference for going slow, using words like “modest” and “gradual” to describe their views on the right pace for rate cuts.
The fourth, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, said she feels Fed policy is “very tight” and does not believe that a strong economy, as long as inflation continues to fall, should keep the central bank from continuing to reduce rates.
The remarks provide a small taste of what’s expected to be a broad but closed-door debate of the appropriate path for policy at the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting, on Nov. 6-7.
After Friday, U.S. central bankers will observe a communications blackout — abstaining from any public comments on their monetary policy views — until the Fed announces its policy decision at the close of the two-day meeting on Nov. 7.
“While I support dialing back the restrictiveness of policy, my preference would be to avoid outsized moves, especially given uncertainty over the eventual destination of policy and my desire to avoid contributing to financial market volatility,” Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid told the Certified Financial Analysts Society of Kansas City, in Missouri. He said he believes rate cuts should be gradual and deliberate.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, speaking earlier in the day to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York, made similar remarks.
“If the economy evolves as I currently expect, a strategy of gradually lowering the policy rate toward a more normal or neutral level can help manage the risks and achieve our goals,” she said.
The Fed last month cut the policy rate by a bigger-than-expected half of a percentage point, to a range of 4.75% to 5%, given cooling in both inflation and labor markets. It was the first rate cut in four years.
Fed policymakers’ economic projections published at the time showed that most thought further, and likely smaller, interest-rate reductions would be appropriate.
Since then, strong retail sales and bigger-than-expected job growth in September have boosted speculation that the Fed could cut rates even more slowly, perhaps even pausing at next month’s rate-setting meeting or the one in December.
Daly, in a webcast interview with the Wall Street Journal, gave no indication she would support a pause.
“I haven’t seen any information that would suggest we wouldn’t continue to reduce the interest rate consistent with achieving that durable expansion,” she said, when asked about the November decision. “This is a very tight interest rate for an economy that already is on the path to 2% inflation, and I don’t want to see the labor market slow further.”
The Fed, she added, should be “open-minded” to the possibility that stronger productivity growth may be allowing the economy to grow faster without pushing up on inflation, allowing the central bank to continue to reduce rates.
Of the four Fed officials who spoke on Monday, Daly is the only current voter on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, though all policymakers attend meetings and voice opinions.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Monday appeared to endorse a go-slow approach to rate cuts, repeating his call for “modest” interest rate cuts over the next “several quarters.”
He said the economy’s strength shows the eventual resting point for the policy rate — what is known as the neutral rate, where borrowing costs neither slow nor stimulate growth — may be higher than it was in the past, a point that Schmid also made.
“We want to keep the labor market strong and we want to get inflation back down to our 2% target,” Kashkari said, and the appropriate path of interest rates will “depend on the data.”
But Kashkari said that a sharp deterioration of labor markets could move him to advocate for faster cuts. “If we saw a weakening, like real evidence that the labor market is weakening quickly, then that would tell me, as one policymaker, ‘Hey, maybe we ought to bring down our interest rate more quickly than I currently expect,'” Kashkari said in a town hall at the Chippewa Falls Area Chamber of Commerce.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir with reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chris Reese and Leslie Adler)
