By John Revill
ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss economic output could be reduced by up to 1% if a Trump presidency sparked a trade war by imposing higher tariffs, a group of economists has warned ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election.
Economists from the KOF Institute at Zurich’s ETH university estimate in their study that if Donald Trump raises tariffs, as he has threatened during his campaign, Swiss gross domestic product would be reduced by around 0.2%.
The economic hit could rise to 1% if “severe amplification effects” like a global trade war or companies moved location as a result of the tariffs, said Hans Gersbach, one of the authors.
The study did not assess the impact of a win by Trump’s opponent Kamala Harris due to the vagueness of her policies, he said.
Republican former President Trump has floated plans for tariffs of 10-20% on virtually all imports into the United States. If he did so, and the European Union retaliated, a separate report has predicted a 1.3% drop in euro zone GDP in 2027 and 2028.
Vice President Harris has said little about trade policy, but favours strategic tariffs to help workers or punish trade adversaries.
The Swiss pharmaceutical industry, manufacturers of machinery, appliances, precision instruments, watches and foodstuffs, for example, would suffer significantly from higher tariffs, Gersbach said.
The United States is the biggest market for Switzerland’s export-orientated economy, making up 19.4% of all goods exports in the first nine months of 2024, more than other big markets like Germany, China and France.
A separate survey of Swiss businesses by consultancy Deloitte showed only 32% of 112 finance chiefs expect trade and economic policy to be better for Switzerland under Harris, a figure which dropped to 12% for a Trump administration.
(Reporting by John Revill; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
