By Stefano Rebaudo
(Reuters) – The dollar was on track to end a volatile week with a slight gain, as markets weighed the impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House for the U.S. economy and the rate outlook.
The U.S. dollar had lost ground in the previous session as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency following his election victory.
“We need more clarity about U.S. policies,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at BofA.
“Until then, the greenback will be trading data and expectations for the Fed easing path,” he added, arguing that tariffs and tax cuts could be positive for the dollar in the short term but harmful in the long run, while all will depend on how the Federal Reserve reacts.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked down 0.05% to 104.37, on track to gain about 0.07% for the week.
It had rallied 1.53% on Wednesday as “Trump trades” picked up strongly.
“The actual policy of the Trump administration is likely to lag behind its announcements, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank.
How Chinese authorities stimulate a struggling economy has been a key focus in recent months for antipodean currencies, and also for the euro as the bloc’s economy is quite dependent on Chinese demand.
China’s yuan traded offshore weakened slightly after Beijing unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilise flagging economic growth.
China’s growth outlook also affects global risk sentiment, but market reaction was muted.
“Markets may have been hoping for a larger-than-expected stimulus,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.
“There may be more to come once policymakers have more clarity on what a new Trump administration may do next year.”
The offshore yuan was last 0.35% lower at 7.1737 per dollar. It was at 7.189 before the press conference of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
The European single currency dropped 0.1% to $1.0792 and was headed for a 0.4% decline for the week, which saw the collapse of Germany’s coalition government on Wednesday.
George Saravelos, head of forex research at Deutsche Bank, said political instability in Germany could be positive for the euro in the longer term, but it was too early to price in.
“The impact would run via the potential confidence effect boosts of a more stable government, and more importantly the direct economic effects of a potentially more pro-active fiscal stance,” Saravelos said.
German opposition parties and business groups are putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to trigger a new election quickly to minimise political uncertainty.
The U.S. Fed on Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points as widely expected and flagged a patient, cautious approach to further easing.
The central bank’s rate trajectory has been clouded by Trump’s election victory as his plans for hefty import tariffs are widely expected to stoke inflation.
Traders have reacted to the outcome of the election by trimming bets on rate cuts next year, as tariffs are more likely to fuel inflation.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the results of Tuesday’s presidential election would have no “near-term” impact on U.S. monetary policy.
The yen rose 0.4% to 152.28 per dollar.
“The yen cross against the dollar will trade U.S. data and the Fed,” BofA’s Vamvakidis argued. “It will not be affected as much by risk sentiment.”
The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for its Chinese counterpart, fell 0.60% to $0.6639.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; editing by Christopher Cushing, Ros Russell and Kevin Liffey)
