By Ted Hesson, Ben Kellerman and Kristina Cooke
WASHINGTON – President-elect Donald Trump plans to launch a mass deportation operation targeting millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally and with temporary protections once he takes office on Jan. 20, a challenging initiative that could split apart families and affect U.S. businesses.
There were roughly 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally or with a temporary status at the start of 2022, a figure that some analysts say has increased to 13-14 million. Those with temporary protections are not immediately deportable and many live in “sanctuary” states that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
WHERE DO IMMIGRANTS WITHOUT LEGAL STATUS LIVE?
California was the state with the most immigrants in the U.S. illegally with some 2.2 million in 2022, according to estimates by the Center for Migration Studies of New York, a nonpartisan think tank.
Texas was close behind with 1.8 million, followed by Florida (936,000), New York (672,000). New Jersey (495,000) and Illinois (429,000).
California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois – all Democratic strongholds – are among 11 states with “sanctuary” laws or policies that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, according to the Immigrant Legal Resource Center.
Some 44% of immigrants in the U.S. illegally lived in sanctuary states in 2022, according to the center’s estimate. That figure does not include those in sanctuary cities and counties in places without a state-wide law, such as New Mexico.
Most of the immigrants taken into custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are caught illegally crossing the border or are referred from state and local prisons and jails.
Law enforcement in sanctuary states typically refuse to alert ICE when they detain or release an immigrant eligible for deportation.
WHERE DO IMMIGRANTS WITHOUT LEGAL STATUS COME FROM?
Nearly half of the immigrants in the U.S. illegally in 2022 came from Mexico, amounting to 4.8 million of 11 million overall, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security report.
Other top countries were Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.
Since January 2022, some 2 million immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela were either caught crossing illegally or allowed to enter via Biden-era humanitarian programs, according to DHS statistics.
Trump intends to end the Biden entry programs, including one for migrants with U.S. sponsors and another that allows migrants in Mexico to use an app to enter through a legal border crossing.
WHERE DO IMMIGRANTS IN THE U.S. ILLEGALLY WORK?
The vast majority of the immigrants in the U.S. illegally in 2022 were prime working age, according to the DHS report. About 8.7 million of the 11 million were ages 18-54.
Farm groups have urged Trump to spare their workers from his promised mass deportations, arguing their removal would upend the U.S. food supply chain.
Think tanks and the U.S. government have varying estimates for the number of agricultural workers that live in the U.S. illegally. The Center for Migration Studies of New York found the total number to be 283,000 in 2022, with about half in California. U.S. government estimates suggest the nationwide total could be closer to 1 million.
HOW MANY AMERICANS LIVE IN ‘MIXED-STATUS HOUSEHOLDS’?
The immigration advocacy group projected there could be as many as 14.5 million immigrants without legal status or with temporary protections by January 2025, up from the 11 million in 2022.
Of those, 10.1 million live with a U.S. citizen or permanent resident, what’s known as a “mixed-status household.”
The figure suggests that a large-scale deportation initiative would likely split up families and could affect millions of U.S. citizens and permanent residents.
At least 5.1 million U.S. citizen children live with an immigrant parent who lacks legal status, according to a FWD.us analysis of government data.
Those families could face the prospect of relocating to another country together or be separated.
HOW LONG HAVE IMMIGRANTS WHO LACK LEGAL STATUS LIVED IN THE U.S.?
Some 54% of immigrants in the U.S. illegally had lived in the country for more than 10 years as of 2022, according to the report by Center for Migration Studies of New York.
About 25% had been in the country for less than five years.
HOW MANY IMMIGRANTS IN THE U.S. NOW LACK LEGAL STATUS?
DHS, the Center for Migration Studies of New York and other think tanks have used U.S. Census data and other figures to estimate that there were about 11 million immigrants in the U.S. in 2022 who either lacked legal immigration status or had temporary humanitarian protections.
DHS enforcement and entry statistics suggest that at least 5 million more immigrants entered the U.S. without legal status or with a temporary humanitarian status since then.
However, some of those immigrants have since been deported, voluntarily left, obtained legal status or died over the same period. An up-to-date estimate that factors in all of these outcomes is not available.
ARE PEOPLE WITH TEMPORARY PROTECTIONS COUNTED IN THESE ESTIMATES?
Yes, the estimates of immigrants in the U.S. illegally typically include people who have temporary humanitarian protections, meaning they would not be immediately deportable.
The protections include 1.1 million people covered by Temporary Protected Status (TPS) as of Sept. 30. TPS grants deportation relief and access to work permits to people already in the U.S. if their home countries are deemed unsafe due to armed conflict, natural disasters, or other extraordinary circumstances.
The designations last six- to 18-months but can be renewed indefinitely. Trump sought to end most TPS enrollment during his 2017-2021 presidency but was blocked by federal courts.
He is expected to try to end most TPS enrollment as the protections expire, but the process would face litigation.
Thousands more have a similar status known as Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) that Trump could also try to roll back.
Another 535,000 people have deportation relief and work permits through the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program for “Dreamer” immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
Trump tried to end the DACA program during his first term but was rebuffed by the Supreme Court.
Trump is expected to again try to end DACA although he said in a recent interview that he would be open to a deal to protect “Dreamers.”
The state of Texas is currently leading a lawsuit against the program that could make its way back to the Supreme Court during Trump’s presidency.
(This story has been refiled to clarify language around population projection in paragraph 16)
(Reporting by Ted Hesson in Washington, Ben Kellerman in New York City, and Kristina Cooke in San Francisco; Editing by Mary Milliken and Aurora Ellis)
