ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s inflation rate is expected to rise by 1.61% in December from the previous month and stand at 45.2% year-on-year, with the annual rate seen falling to 26.5% by the end of 2025, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The median estimate of 10 economists saw annual inflation falling to 45.2% in December from 47.09% in November, standing closer to the upper end of central bank’s year-end prediction range. Forecasts ranged from 44.9% to 45.54%.
Monthly inflation is expected to slow from previous readings due to easing food price rises and a limited rise in energy, economists said. Forecasts ranged between 1.4% and 1.84%.
Economists will also look at the course of services inflation, which showed signs of slowing in recent months, following the announcement of 30% increase in minimum wage for 2025, a level far less than requested by workers.
In November, inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis on the back of food, housing and health-related prices.
The central bank, having kept its key interest rate steady at 50% since March, cut it by 250 basis points to 47.5% on Thursday.
The central bank said it will set policy “prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook,” and respond to any expected “significant and persistent deterioration”.
The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 26.5% by year-end, based on the median estimate. Forecasts ranged between 25% and 29%. The central bank sees inflation falling to 21% in the same period, and is expected to cut rates further next year.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will release December inflation data at 0700 GMT on Jan 3.
(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
