BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s auto exports are estimated to slow notably this year after holding the export crown for a second year in 2024, with no growth predicted for electric vehicle exports, an auto association official said on Thursday.
With car exports up 25% to 4.8 million units, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data, China probably ranked as the world’s largest auto exporter ahead of Japan for a second consecutive year in 2024 despite additional tariffs on China-made electric vehicles the European Union introduced in late October.
Japan’s auto exports fell 4.3% to 3.82 million vehicles in the first 11 months of 2024, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.
But export growth is seen cooling to 10% this year, with an expected drop in shipments to Russia adding to tariff pressure in Europe, said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of CPCA, and EV exports are forecast to see “zero growth.”
Exports of electric cars and plug-in hybrids, known collectively as new energy vehicles (NEVs), grew 24.3% to 1.29 million last year.
A year-long subsidy probe against Chinese-made EVs weighed on exports to the bloc, with 10% growth in the first months falling well short of an 36% increase in 2023, according to the association.
Russia, Mexico and United Arab Emirates were the top three markets for China-made cars in the first 11 months of 2024, CPCA said, while exports to Thailand, Australia, and Britain fell.
While EU tariffs would limit sales of Chinese EVs in the short-term, establishing production facilities in Europe, such as BYD’s in Hungary, will help China’s carmakers gain market share there in the longer term, said Charles Lester, research analyst at Rho Motion.
LOCAL LEADERS
In China’s domestic market, the world’s largest, car sales maintained their growth pace in 2024 as EV and plug-in hybrid sales hit a record high amid a brutal price war and with subsidised trade-ins for greener vehicles driving demand.
The outstanding growth in China in a largely stalling global EV landscape bode well for local leaders such as BYD, Geely and Xiaomi and expedited an industry shakeout in a competitive market.
It also benefited Tesla, whose China sales hit a record high in 2024, bucking an overall decline in the U.S. EV giant’s global sales.
Other foreign automakers such as General Motors, Toyota and Volkswagen continued to lose ground to Chinese rivals, however, with many of them struggling to sustain effective capacity usage at their Chinese plants.
Passenger vehicle sales rose 5.3% to 23.1 million units in 2024 for the fourth straight year of growth, in line with the 2023 pace, CPCA data showed.
NEV sales rose 40.7% to make up 47.2% of total car sales last year, closing in on a 50% milestone, buoyed by a programme likened to the U.S. “cash-for-clunkers” stimulus in 2009.
More than 6.6 million cars sold last year benefited from government subsidies of up to $2,800 for NEV purchases and as much as $2,000 for more fuel-efficient combustion engine vehicles. Over 60% of the subsidised purchases went to NEVs, according to official data.
Beijing announced on Wednesday an extension of the auto trade-in subsidies into 2025 as part of an expanded consumer trade-in scheme to revive economic growth.
“We expect the vehicle trade-in subsidy programme to boost full-year 2025 demand by 3.0 million units,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Bin Wang.
Overall, car sales are estimated to grow 2% this year while NEV sales are expected to rise 20% to make up 57% of China’s total car sales, CPCA predicted.
That suggests 2025 sales growth of EVs and plug-in hybrid cars could be the weakest since 2021, even though Cui estimated the scale of government subsidies would be sustained at a peak level this year.
Despite the sales growth, China’s auto industry has seen a deteriorating profitability over the years. Sales profit margins were at 4.4% in the first 11 months of 2024. That compares with 5% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2020, according to the association.
Suppliers and dealers also suffered from an extended price war that forced them to cut component prices more or offer deeper discounts.
(Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Tom Hogue and Tomasz Janowski)
