(Reuters) -Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in the upcoming January meeting, although a non-farm payrolls (NFP) report later on Friday was expected to offer more clues on the central bank’s monetary policy for the year.
After cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could now be “cautious” about further reductions.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of
2025)
Goldman Sachs No rate cut 75 (through 3.50-3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(through 3.50-3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
Morgan Stanley No rate cut 50 (through 3.75-4.00% (through
June 2025) June 2025)
Nomura No rate cut 25 4.00-4.25% (through
end of 2025)
*UBS Global No rate cut 125 3.00-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank No rate cut No Rate 4.25-4.50%
Cuts
Societe No rate cut – 3.00-3.25% (by early
Generale 2026)
ING No rate cut 75 3.75 – 4.00%
Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00-4.25%
UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75-4.00% (end of
Wealth 2025)
Management
Peel Hunt No rate cut 50 3.50-4.00%
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel, Shounak Dasgupta, Devika Syamnath and Anil D’Silva)
