(Reuters) -U.S. central bankers project more limited interest-rate cuts in 2025 than the full percentage point of reductions they delivered in 2024, given slower progress toward their 2% inflation goal, a still-strong labor market, and a lot of uncertainty over the potential impact of tax cuts, tariffs and other economic policies in Donald Trump’s second term as president.
Here is a look at comments from Fed policymakers since the last rate-setting decision, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.
The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Christopher Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman,
Waller, Governor, Fed Chair, Governor,
permanent voter: permanent permanent voter:
“If inflation is voter: “I think “We should be
down and the we’re in a good cautious in
labor market place, but I considering
stays solid, you think from here changes to the
could think about it’s a new phase policy rate as we
restarting rate and we’re going move toward a
cuts several to be cautious more neutral
months from about further setting…We
now… I don’t cuts.” Dec. 18, should also
think March could 2024 refrain from
be completely prejudging the
ruled out.” Jan. incoming
16, 2025 administration’s
future policies.”
Jan. 9, 2025
Lisa Cook, John Williams, Jeffrey Schmid,
Governor, New York Fed Kansas City Fed
permanent voter: President, President, 2025
“I think we can permanent voter: “I am in
afford to proceed voter: “While I favor of
more cautiously expect that adjusting policy
with further disinflation gradually going
cuts.” Jan. 6, will progress, forward and only
2025 it will take in response to a
time, and the sustained change
process may well in the tone of
be the data.” Jan.
choppy. Monetary 9, 2025
policy is well
positioned to
keep the risks
to our goals in
balance.” Jan.
15, 2025
Austan Goolsbee, Philip Alberto Musalem,
Chicago Fed Jefferson, Vice St. Louis Fed
President, 2025 Chair, permanent President, 2025
voter: “Is there voter: No public voter: Since
evidence of comments on September, “the
overheating of monetary policy economic data
the economy? So since Oct. 2024. came in
far, in recent stronger…and the
months, there is inflation numbers
not a lot of printed higher
evidence.” Jan. than desired. So
10, 2025 I changed my
assessment of
risks.” Jan. 10,
2025
Michael Barr, Beth Hammack,
Vice Chair of Cleveland Fed
Supervision, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: No public
No public comments on
comments on monetary policy
monetary policy since Dec. 2024.
since May 2024.
Adriana Kugler, Lorie Logan,
Governor, Dallas Fed
permanent voter: President, 2026
“We are fully voter: No public
aware that we comments on
are not there monetary policy
yet – no one is since Nov. 2024.
popping
champagne
anywhere….And at
the same time
… we want the
unemployment
rate to stay
where it is.”
Jan. 4, 2025
Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari,
Boston Fed Minneapolis Fed
President, 2025 President, 2026
voter: “With an voter: No public
economy that is comments on
in a good place monetary policy
overall and since Nov. 2024.
policy already
closer to a more
neutral stance,
I view the
current nature
of uncertainty
as calling for a
gradual and
patient approach
to
policymaking.”
Jan. 9, 2025
Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin,
Philadelphia Fed Richmond Fed
President, 2026 President, 2027
voter: “It’s voter: The
appropriate for December consumer
us to take a bit price index data
of a pause right “continues the
now and see how story we have
things shake been on, which is
out.” Jan. 9, that inflation is
2025 coming down
towards target.”
Jan. 15, 2025
Raphael Bostic,
Atlanta Fed
President, 2027
voter: No public
comments on
monetary policy
since Dec. 2024.
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2027
voter: “At this
point, I would
not want to see
further slowing
in the labor
market.” Jan. 4,
2025
Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the policy rate in December to the 4.25%-4.50% range. Projections showed most policymakers expect to cut rates by a half percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of this year, a smaller reduction than they saw in September.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Jan. ’25 0 3 9 7 0
Dec. ’24 0 2 10 7 0
Nov. ’24 0 0 13 5 0
Sept ’24 0 1 12 5 0
May through July ’24 0 1 10 6 1
March ’24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)
