TAIPEI (Reuters) – Economic growth in trade-dependent Taiwan was expected to have slowed in the fourth quarter coming off a higher base, though exports were robust on AI demand, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in October-December was expected to have expanded 2% from a year earlier, slowing from 4.17% growth in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of a poll of 27 economists.
“Exports still did well and domestic consumption was stable,” said analyst Kevin Wang of Taishin Investment Advisory, noting the data would be skewed by the high base in the year-ago period.
The poll forecasts for preliminary GDP data, due on Friday, ranged from expansion of just 1.1% to as much as 4.4%.
Fourth-quarter exports rose 9.1% year-on-year, slightly faster than the third-quarter’s 8.1%. That was powered by the island’s tech-heavy exporters such as chipmakers, who rode a wave of AI demand.
The island is home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, a major supplier for such companies as Apple and Nvidia.
The government’s statistics bureau in November raised its forecast for full-year 2024 growth to 4.27% versus a previous projection of 3.9%. In 2023, the economy expanded 1.31%, a 14-year low.
The economy in China, Taiwan’s largest export market grew 5% last year, matching the government’s target, with fourth quarter GDP expanding 5.4%, beating the market forecast.
Taiwan’s preliminary GDP reading will be released in a statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more details and forecasts.
(Poll compiled by Susobhan Sarkar and Anant Chandak; Reporting by Faith Hung and Jeanny Kao; Editing by Ben Blanchard and Bernadette Baum)
