By Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider
(Reuters) -The Trump administration’s plans for trade tariffs come with inflation risks, three Federal Reserve officials warned on Monday, with one arguing that uncertainty over the outlook for prices calls for slower interest-rate cuts than otherwise.
Trump on Saturday slapped across-the-board tariffs on the three largest U.S. trade partners, though by late Monday the leaders of Mexico and Canada had won a 30-day reprieve after they agreed to stepped-up efforts to stem drug trafficking. Tariffs on China are set to begin on Tuesday, and Trump has signaled he will impose duties on other trading partners as well.
“The kind of broad-based tariffs that were announced over the weekend, one would expect to have an impact on prices,” Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with CNBC, adding that “with broad-based tariffs, you actually would not only see increases in prices of final goods, but also a number of intermediate goods.”
Little modern experience on how mega-tariffs impact the economy makes it hard for the Fed to know exactly how big or long-lasting the effects will be, she said, noting that it is possible the Fed could even shrug off a one-time increase in inflation tied to the tariffs.
Speaking later in the day on Marketplace Radio, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that very lack of clarity requires a go-slower approach on interest-rate cuts.
“Now we’ve got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates could come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again,” Goolsbee said.
He did not repeat his recent mantra, voiced as recently as last week, that rates will need to come down a fair bit over the next year, given progress on bringing down inflation and the goal of keeping the economy at full employment.
Earlier in the day, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned his business contacts were planning to pass through any rising costs from the tariffs.
“The ultimate question about whether that is significantly inflationary depends on exactly how it plays out,” as there are scenarios where the Fed may be able to shrug off these increases and ones where it might not be able to. “To the extent that were to impact things like inflation expectations then you’d have to,” Bostic told reporters after a speech.
Analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said on Monday that the full suite of tariffs on the three nations, if implemented, will cost the typical American household an additional $1,200 a year.
“The burden will fall disproportionately on low-income households who spend more of their income on physical goods relative to higher income households,” ING chief international economist James Knightley said, noting that tariffs are effectively tax increases on American citizens, as they are paid by the citizens of importing nations.
‘NO URGENCY’
The Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates by a full percentage point last year, held its policy rate steady last week, flagging uncertainty in the economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting that when it comes to tariffs, “we need to let those policies be articulated before we can even begin to make a plausible assessment of what their implications for the economy will be.”
Collins, who is a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, told CNBC that Fed policy is well-positioned. She noted that “it’s really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful, and there’s no urgency for making additional adjustments, especially given all of the uncertainty, even though, of course, we’re still somewhat restrictive” with the current stance of interest rates.
Bostic also signaled he was ready to stay on the sidelines for the time being. There is “a ton of uncertainty in a ton of space,” Bostic told a Rotary Club of Atlanta meeting, adding “there are a lot of things I am going to wait and see about … I’d be very satisfied to wait for a while” with rates at their current levels.
Collins left the door open to further rate cuts, saying “I certainly would see additional … normalization, in terms of what the policy stance is,” without providing a time frame.
Financial markets are currently betting the Fed will wait until at least June before it cuts rates again.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Deepa Babington and Jamie Freed)
