By Marcelo Teixeira and Roberto Samora
LUIS EDUARDO MAGALHAES/GUAXUPE, Brazil (Reuters) – Drought hit coffee farmers in Brazil hard last year, drying up trees and driving global prices to record highs.
But Rodrigo Brondani is expecting a bumper harvest.
Brondani’s giant plantation on the savanna of Brazil’s northeastern state of Bahia looks very different to the mountainside farms and estates typical in coffee cultivation across much of Latin America.
As he inspects rows of plants laden with green coffee cherries, a long irrigation arm passes overhead nearby.
It traces a wide circle above the trees from a central pivot, like the hand of a clock.
“This is looking very good,” said Brondani, the lead manager at the Joha farm, which has 900 hectares (2,224 acres) of irrigated coffee fields – more than 20 times bigger than the average coffee farm in Brazil.
This kind of industrial-scale farm with access to irrigation is becoming increasingly important in meeting global coffee demand in Brazil – the world’s largest grower.
Most farms in the western part of Bahia – a new frontier for coffee growing in Brazil – are now irrigated.
Brondani expects to produce up to 80 60-kg (132.3 pounds) bags of coffee per hectare at that specific lot of the farm, double the average yield in Brazil.
At current market prices, the farm’s most recent harvest, ended in October, would be worth around $17 million.
Reuters spoke to more than 20 farmers, officials, agronomists, irrigation experts and coffee company executives to examine how rapid shifts in rainfall patterns due to climate change are transforming coffee farming.
Coffee growers have typically depended on Brazil’s abundant spring and summer rains.
Drought was rare and only around 30% of coffee fields are irrigated, according to industry assessments.
After last year’s drought, that is changing. But irrigation can be costly, depending on the distance from a water source and the depth of the water table.
In some places in the heart of Brazil’s traditional coffee growing region in the state of Minas Gerais, the water table has fallen so much that supplying water to irrigated farms has become very difficult.
The trees at Joha are planted in nine giant circles that bump up against each other on the vast tropical savanna.
The circular layout facilitates irrigation. There is enough water here to irrigate the crop for up to 20 hours a day.
The glossy plants stand in stark contrast to the desiccated trees seen on many drought-hit coffee farms last year.
When the rains did come, it was too late to save the 2025 coffee crop.
Many of the trees that survived in Minas Gerais were left weakened, so they will produce fewer beans this year. Brazilian coffee supplies, which account for around 35% of global consumption, are expected to fall again, according to some analysts.
“People say that without irrigation it will be very hard to produce coffee profitably,” said Osmar Junior, who said his production at a smaller farm in Minas Gerais that lacks irrigation, fell to 700 bags in 2024 from 2,000 bags in 2020.
2025 is expected to mark the fourth time in the past six years that global coffee consumption exceeds supply.
In the past three years alone, the world has consumed 12.5 million bags, or 750,000 metric tonnes, more coffee than it has grown, according to the International Coffee Organization. The deficit is equivalent to about 7% of global annual supply.
As a result, farmers and coffee roasters have had to run down what coffee they had in storage to meet demand.
The shortfall has driven benchmark coffee prices up nearly 25% already in 2025, after an eye-popping rally of 70% in 2024.
The futures price of high quality arabica coffee hit a record of $4.40 per pound on February 13.
All that means a more expensive morning brew. Nestle’s Nespresso, U.S. chain Starbucks and JDE Peet, among many others, have all raised prices for clients.
Given the rally so far this year, consumers will soon have to pay even more, analysts said.
IRRIGATION, BUT NO WATER
The company that owns the Joha farm where Brondani works says that climate change means the future of coffee cultivation will be at heavily irrigated farms like this one.
“In our view, coffee farming has changed for good,” said Sergio Vieira, a director at holding company AFB&IOB, one of the biggest coffee growers in the world that holds about 20,000 hectares of coffee fields in Brazil.
AFB&IOB bought the Joha farm in 2009, in a time when access to water for irrigation was less pressing than it is now for Brazil’s coffee industry.
Things have changed a lot since.
“We are always looking for farms to buy, but the number one aspect we take into consideration nowadays is water availability,” said Vieira.
Western Bahia sits on one of the world’s largest aquifers, the Urucuia.
The aquifer is just 20 meters or so below the surface in some areas.
But, in Minas Gerais, the water tables have fallen so far that farmers in some places need to drill wells 300 meters (984.25 ft)deep to hit water.
Drilling that deep is costly and risky, and can result in weak water flow, said irrigation specialist Jose do Espirito Santo.
Several municipalities in Minas Gerais limited irrigation in 2024 because of the drought.
“I have an irrigation system, but there was no water,” said Mario Alvarenga, who grows coffee in a 300-hectare farm in Perdoes, in the savanna region in Minas Gerais.
Coffee research body Fundacao Procafe tracks soil moisture at coffee regions in Minas Gerais.
Their data showed soils in top growing region of south Minas had a water deficit for optimum coffee plant growth of 300 millimeters (11.81 inches) at the end of the dry season in October, 2024.
That compares to a deficit of 110 millimeters (4.33 inches) in 2023 at the same time and a long-term average of a surplus of 20 mm.
“The recent (water) deficits we have seen are scary,” said Procafe researcher Rodrigo Paiva, referring to 2023 and 2024 data.
HIGH INVESTMENT
Beyond water availability, a key factor in coffee farming is capital.
Farmers around the world are only now reaping the benefits of high coffee prices, after a decade of low values sent many out of business, or left them with minimal available cash.
A central pivot irrigation system costs around 1.5 million reais ($263,000) each.
A different system called dripping, where small water pipes are inserted in the soil with little holes close to the plants, could cost around 40,000 reais ($6,991) per hectare.
“It is a very high investment for a farmer,” said Hugo Guimaraes de Oliveira, a coffee agronomist and farmer in the Guaxupe region in Minas Gerais, where the world’s largest coffee co-op, Cooxupe, operates.
Cooxupe’s president Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo said irrigation has made a difference in recent dry years.
However, only around 20% of the area around the co-op has these systems, but he expects that number to double in a period of three to five years.
The co-op has made a partnership with Israeli irrigation company Netafim, a global leader in irrigation systems, to provide an option for its associated farmers to install dripping technology and pay with coffee bags over time.
Oliveira said farmers could also improve crop care, with regenerative agriculture techniques to improve soil’s capacity to retain moisture, along with some field renovation – replacing old trees with new varieties.
With that, along with dripping water system, he believes yields could jump to up to 70 bags per hectare, compared to as low as 20 bags per hectare in an old farm without irrigation.
QUICK GROWTH
The number of central pivot irrigation systems like the one at Brondani’s farm rose 14% in Brazil from 2022 to 2024 according to the country’s agricultural research company Embrapa.
Coffee farmers are not the only ones that have moved to western Bahia, a new agricultural frontier in Brazil where farmers are increasingly growing grains, cotton, coffee, cocoa and fruits.
Bahia’s farmers association AIBA said that, considering available water resources, there is potential for total irrigated area in the region to grow to 1 million hectares in coming years from the current 300,000 hectares.
Recent research, however, raised concerns about what it calls the “super exploration” of water resources in Bahia.
A study published last year by non-profit Imaterra with the Bahia Federal University (UFBA) says the local government has relaxed regulation in recent years related to concessions for water use.
It also says existing tools to evaluate water resources are inefficient.
The amount of water allowed to be used by the booming agricultural sector in Bahia – around 17 billion liters per day – would be enough to supply nine times the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest city of 11.5 million people, the researchers said.
The Brazilian Geological Service (SGB) has found that the Urucuia lost 31 cubic km of water from 2002 to 2021 due mostly to the use of water for agriculture.
That is around 2.3% of the permanent reserves of the aquifer, estimated at 1,327 cubic km.
Scientists working for the SGB believe the government should increase monitoring tools like wells in the site.
($1 = 5.7210 reais)
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira; Editing by Simon Webb, Daniel Flynn and Anna Driver)
