By Shi Bu and Kevin Yao
BEIJING, Dec 9 (Reuters) – New bank loan issuance in China likely more than doubled in November, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, driven by seasonal factors and the early impact of a financial instrument introduced in September to spur investment.
Chinese banks are expected to have issued around 500 billion yuan ($70.73 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, according to the average of 21 economists’ estimates in a Reuters poll, up from 220 billion yuan worth of loans in October but slightly lower than 580 billion issued in November last year.
Analysts said the government’s 500 billion yuan policy-based financial tool could start to show an impact.
“The 500 billion yuan policy-financing tool could start to show its early impact as bills discount rates ticked up throughout the month.
The fading impact of debt swap this year could also support headline loan growth,” Citi analysts said in a note.
“That said, soft household credit demand with property downturn deepening could still weigh on the number.”
China’s growth momentum has been lacklustre in the fourth quarter with factory activity shrinking for an eighth month in November, as the world’s second-largest economy struggles with entrenched deflation that dampens borrowing confidence.
Top leaders in China pledged on Monday to keep expanding domestic demand and support the broader economy with more proactive policies in 2026 as Beijing works to shift away from a growth model long driven by exports and investment, at a time of increasing pressure on global trade.
The government is expected to release loans and money supply data between December 10 and 15.
The broader M2 money supply likely grew 8.2% in November from a year earlier, unchanged from October, the poll showed.
Economists estimated outstanding yuan loans grew 6.5% in November from a year prior, matching October’s pace.
Total social financing (TSF) – a broad measure of credit and liquidity – likely grew to 2.2 trillion yuan in November from 810 billion yuan in October, the poll showed.
Any acceleration in government bond issuance could boost such financing.
The TSF measure includes off-balance-sheet forms of financing beyond conventional bank lending, such as initial public offerings, bond sales and loans from trust companies.
($1 = 7.0692 yuan)
(Reporting by Shi Bu and Kevin Yao; Polling by Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Sonali Desai)
