By Scott DiSavino
(Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Friday, tracking gains in oil prices after Israel launched strikes against Iran, raising worries the conflict could disrupt Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies.
U.S.
crude futures jumped $4.94, or 7.3%, to settle at $72.98 a barrel, their highest close since February. [O/R]
Gas futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.9 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $3.581 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest level since May 30 for a fourth day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was down about 5% after gaining about 13% over the prior two weeks.
So far this year, energy firms have pulled a monthly record high of 1.013 trillion cubic feet of gas out of storage during a brutally cold January and added a monthly record high of 497 billion cubic feet into storage in May when mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low, according to federal energy data.
The prior all-time monthly injection high was 494 bcf in May 2015.
Analysts expect energy firms will set another storage record this week with an eighth triple-digit injection. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release the June 13 storage report a day ahead of usual on Wednesday, June 18, due to the U.S.
Juneteenth holiday on June 19. [EIA/GAS] [GAS/POLL]
During the week ended June 6, energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row, tying the seven-week triple-digit injection record set in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S.
states eased to 105.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 28.
With hotter summer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.5 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week and 102.1 bcfd in two weeks.
The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.0 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG’s 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG’s 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.
Energy traders said they expect LNG maintenance to continue through late-June at Sabine, which has been pulling in about 3.0 bcfd of gas since the end of May.
That compares with an average of 4.5 bcfd during the month of May.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jun 13 Jun 6 Jun 13 average
Forecast Actual Jun 13
U.S.
weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +102 +109 +72 +72
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,809 2,707 3,035 2,640
U.S.
total storage versus 5-year average +6.4% +5.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2024 (2019-2023)
Henry Hub 3.53 3.49 2.81 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.92 12.35 10.87 10.95 15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.46 12.45 12.30 11.89 15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S.
GFS HDDs 11 10 11 12 12
U.S. GFS CDDs 191 189 189 160 157
U.S.
GFS TDDs 202 199 200 172 169
LSEG U.S.
Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2020-2024)
Average For
Month
U.S.
Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 104.9 105.4 105.1 100.9 96.8
U.S.
Imports from Canada 7.5 8.0 7.3 N/A 7.3
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S.
Supply 112.4 113.4 112.4 N/A 104.1
U.S.
Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.7 1.6 1.5 N/A 2.3
U.S.
Exports to Mexico 7.4 7.1 7.4 N/A 6.3
U.S. LNG Exports 13.5 13.7 14.1 12.9 9.1
U.S.
Commercial 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8
U.S. Residential 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3
U.S.
Power Plant 34.5 38.2 38.0 38.1 38.0
U.S. Industrial 22.3 22.1 22.2 21.6 21.5
U.S.
Plant Fuel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.8
U.S.
Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 72.9 76.0 75.8 75.3 76.8
Total U.S.
Demand 95.5 98.5 98.8 N/A 88.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S.
Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
(Fiscal year ending Sep 30) Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual
Forecast Forecast
Apr-Sep 79 79 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 79 79 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 81 81 77 76 103
U.S.
weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Week ended 2024 2023 2022
Jun 13 Jun 6
Wind 9 9 11 10 11
Solar 8 8 5 4 3
Hydro 6 7 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 41 40 42 41 38
Coal 17 16 16 17 21
Nuclear 18 19 19 19 19
SNL U.S.
Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 2.90 2.73
Transco Z6 New York 1.82 2.04
PG&E Citygate 3.08 3.00
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.82 1.92
Chicago Citygate 2.65 2.59
Algonquin Citygate 1.95 2.23
SoCal Citygate 3.63 3.49
Waha Hub 2.25 2.25
AECO 0.92 0.96
ICE U.S.
Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 31.50 35.67
PJM West 45.45 58.59
Mid C 28.60 30.52
Palo Verde 34.17 37.48
SP-15 15.42 20.39
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
