Italy’s parliament began voting on Monday for a new president, a normally low-stakes race that this time risks bringing down the government if Prime Minister Mario Draghi is elected.
Conducted through secret ballots over several days by more than 1,000 MPs, senators and regional representatives, the outcome of the vote is notoriously hard to predict.
Draghi, a former European Central Bank chief feted for his handling of the eurozone debt crisis and his leadership of Italy’s government over the last 11 months, is widely viewed as the most qualified candidate.
But many fear his step up to head of state would cause his coalition to unravel and even spark snap elections, just as Italy is recovering from the devastation of coronavirus.
As the first round of voting opened at 3:00pm (1400 GMT) Monday, the governing parties — who range from left to right, forming the majority in parliament — had failed to reach agreement, with dozens of candidates in the mix.
Billionaire former premier Silvio Berlusconi withdrew from the contest on Saturday but called on Draghi to stay as premier to see through reforms promised in return for billions of euros in EU recovery funds.
Matteo Salvini of the anti-immigration League party agreed, telling reporters on Sunday: “It would be dangerous for Italy in a difficult economic time… to reinvent a new government from scratch.”
The biggest party in parliament, the Five Star Movement, is also keen to keep Draghi in place. It is polling badly and would lose most of its seats in any snap vote.
– EU reforms –
But Enrico Letta, leader of the centre-left Democratic Party, said Sunday that Draghi had been an “extraordinary resource” for Italy and insisted his name was still on the table.
The head of state is a largely ceremonial post but the holder wields considerable power during political crises, from dissolving parliament to picking new prime ministers and denying mandates to fragile coalitions.
The disparate parties in Draghi’s coalition are already in battle mode ahead of next year’s general elections.
“This is a key and very complicated election, because the political parties are weak, they are in an utterly fragmented state,” Giovanni Orsina, head of the Luiss School of Government in Rome, told AFP.
Italy has a notoriously unstable electoral system and has seen dozens of governments come and go since World War II — with outgoing president Sergio Mattarella seeing five during his seven-year term.
But Draghi has led a remarkably united government since being appointed by Mattarella in February 2021.
The eurozone’s third largest economy has returned to growth following a punishing recession in 2020 sparked by the pandemic.
Draghi has initiated key reforms demanded in exchange for funds from the EU’s post-pandemic recovery scheme, of which Rome is the main beneficiary, to the tune of almost 200 billion euros ($225 billion).
– Car park vote –
Many international investors are concerned that debt-laden Italy would slip behind on the tight reform schedule should Draghi leave.
Others say he would be better placed as president to ensure political stability and good relations with Brussels — particularly should the far right win the next election.
The 74-year-old Draghi, famous for pledging “whatever it takes” to save the euro a decade ago, hinted last month at his interest in the presidency but has since kept silent.
Voting takes place in the lower Chamber of Deputies, with the result of the first round expected on Monday evening.
Because of Italy’s high Covid caseload, electors who tested positive or are isolating will be able to use a drive-through voting station set up in the parliament’s car park.
Commentators predict no breakthrough until Thursday, the fourth round, when the threshold for victory falls from a two-thirds majority to an absolute majority.
Berlusconi’s decision to pull out was no surprise, given his continuing health problems and ongoing legal proceedings over his “Bunga Bunga” sex parties.
The 85-year-old was back in Milan’s San Raffaele hospital on Sunday for what his doctor said were planned, routine checks, and stayed overnight.
