While you were asleep: Ramaphosa likely to win second term in changed political landscape

For some time, we’ve been reading predictions from pollsters that the ANC will dip below the 50% mark in the next national elections, which would force the party to form a coalition government if they are to stay in power or it could open the door to an opposition party forming its own coalition.

While the next national elections take place in 2024, the ANC’s next elective conference will be held at the end of the year and new election research points to the incumbent, Cyril Ramaphosa, winning a second term as president but a continued decline for his ANC party.

In four new predictive scenarios, created by Jakkie Cilliers for the Institute for Security Studies, three of them show the ANC failing to win the 2024 elections but it is also less likely that the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction of the ANC will win at the elective conference in December.

In all four of the scenarios, named Bafana Bafana, Thuma Mina, Nation Divided and Mandela Magic, coalition governments would need to be formed with the style of governance now the status quo for South Africa in future elections.

We have already seen coalition governments formed by opposition parties become commonplace in municipal elections as has been the case in both the 2016 and 2021 elections.

Time will tell if Cilliers’ predictions do become a reality but so far, the ANC decline has been steady and consistent with a further downward trend ever increasing.

Meanwhile, the high court in Pretoria has ruled that South Africa’s planned analogue TV switch off should be delayed from the end of March to the end of June in a ruling handed down on Monday.

The government is planning the switch off to free up broadcast spectrum but in court papers, it is estimated that over eight million households would be left without free-to-air television once the switch off is completed.

According to the court papers, it is estimated that around 3.75 million households could apply for set-top boxes but by mid-March, fewer than 1.12 million had applied, while only around 660 000 households had had new set-top boxes installed.

In the markets, there was finally a correction in the rand yesterday with the local unit losing 1.2% to close at R14.73/$. A stronger dollar, weaker commodity prices and Covid-19 concerns all weighed on the rand and other EM currencies, says forex trading house TreasuryONE.

The rand is currently trading at just under R14.70/$.

Most metal prices fell with gold and platinum down 1.8% while palladium lost 4% with copper bucking the trend by gaining 1.5% on the day. This morning gold and platinum are flat at $1,922 and $982, respectively, while palladium is up 1.0% at $2,250.

“Concerns over demand out China due to the upsurge in Covid cases saw the price of Brent drop 6.2% yesterday. This morning, Brent has lost further ground, trading at $110.70, while WTI is down at 104.40,” comments TreasuryONE.