Equities mostly fell Friday after their worst quarter since the early days of the pandemic as traders assess the impact of the war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s plans to fight surging inflation by ramping up interest rates.
And oil extended a sell-off following Thursday’s plunge in response to news that the United States would release a million barrels a day from its reserves as it looks to rein in a price rally fuelled by Russia’s conflict.
Investors suffered a torrid first three months, with markets across the planet first plunged into turmoil over central bank moves to tighten policy and reel in their Covid-era financial support measures, and then by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Inflation had already rocketed to multi-decade highs in several countries before the war in eastern Europe exacerbated the problem as crucial crude supplies from Russia were slashed and sent its price to six-year highs above $100.
The developments came as profit-takers cashed out after a near two-year rally fuelled by central bank and government largesse.
Despite a pick-up in recent weeks, most indexes finished the quarter in the red.
Traders are struggling to ascertain the outlook for the next three months, with the war showing no signs of ending and the Federal Reserve just getting started on its campaign of sharp rate hikes.
The second quarter of 2022 “is going to start as messily as the first quarter has finished, with markets buffeted by a multitude of strong winds from various directions, with the outcome no clearer for the future than ever,” said OANDA’s Jeffrey Halley.
And Anwiti Bahuguna, at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, told Bloomberg Television that a lowering of growth forecasts for the United States, Europe and China are “something to watch very carefully”.
The upcoming earnings season will be closely watched to see what impact higher inflation and the war has had on firms’ bottom line and their forecasts for the year ahead.
The release of US jobs data later in the day will be closely followed for an idea about the state of the world’s top economy.
All three main indexes on Wall Street finished more than one percent down and Asia was also mostly lower.
Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Manila, Jakarta, Bangkok and Wellington were all down.
London, Paris and Frankfurt rose at the open.
However, Shanghai rose as traders kept an eye on the second phase of a Covid lockdown in China’s biggest city that will see restrictions imposed on the western side. Mumbai and Singapore were also up.
Oil prices shed at least one percent, extending a selloff on Thursday that saw WTI lose seven percent after Joe Biden announced he would release up to 180 million barrels over six months.
The US benchmark struggled to break back above $100.
The president described the move as a “wartime” measure that will defuse Russia’s leverage as an energy power.
However, while the move to ease a global supply crisis was welcomed, commentators warned it would only be a stopgap and could not be a long-term solution.
“It is worth keeping in mind that 180 million barrels is approximately nine days of US demand,” said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes. “And while one million barrels per day is better than nothing and can help balance the four million a day lost from Russia for about six months, what happens after?”
He added: “Markets are still tight, but six months could be a meaningful lifeline and reduce the chances of (more than) $150 oil.”
– Key figures around 0720 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 percent at 27,665.98 (close)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 21,957.38
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.9 percent at 3,282.72 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 7,526.08
Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 1.0 percent at $103.69 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.1 percent at $99.17 per barrel
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1069 from $1.1067 late Wednesday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3125 from $1.3143
Euro/pound: UP at 84.33 pence from 84.20 pence
Dollar/yen: UP at 122.47 yen from 121.69 yen
New York – Dow: DOWN 1.6 percent at 34,678.35 (close)
