(Bloomberg) — South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s prospects of winning a second term as head of the ruling African National Congress and the country received a boost when his allies wrested control of the party in a key province from a bloc loyal to his deputy, David Mabuza.
A former premier of Mpumalanga, Mabuza helped sign up tens of thousands of new ANC members in the province, turning it into one of the party’s biggest voting blocs. He then persuaded its branch delegates to back Ramaphosa as ANC leader at its national conference in 2017 — after initially aligning himself with a group that supported former African Union Commission Chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma — a switch that helped secure the No. 2 post for himself.
The shift in power in Mpumalanga, which saw Mandla Ndlovu elected as provincial chairman, leaves Mabuza’s political future hanging in the balance and leaves the race for his position wide open when the ANC holds its next national elective conference in December. Possible contenders include former Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ncguka, Justice Minister Ronald Lamola and Paul Mashatile, the party’s treasurer general.
While nominations have yet to open, all indications are that Mpumalanga will back Ramaphosa for a second term but it’s unclear who they will favor for other top positions. Under the ANC’s rules, its leader will be its presidential candidate in the 2024 elections. The president has the constitutional right to appoint his deputy, but the post has traditionally gone to the party’s No. 2.
Mabuza has previously said he will stand for a second term if asked to do so.
“Deputy President Mabuza ceased to be the Mpumalanga provincial chairperson in 2017, upon his election to the national level of the ANC,” his spokeswoman, Matshepo Seedat, said by mobile-phone text message. “It remains the position of the deputy president that he is a cadre of the ANC and would always be directed by the wishes of his party.”
Ramaphosa chose Lindiwe Sisulu, now the tourism minister, as his ANC running mate in 2017, but they have since fallen out and she has indicated she wants the top job.
The ANC in the eastern Ethekwini municipality, which has the biggest number of party members, is also due to elect new leaders this weekend — a contest that will be a further indicator of the balance of power within its structures. Thabani Nyawose, a Ramaphosa ally, will square off against Zandile Gumede, the municipality’s former mayor, for the post of regional chairperson.
Gumede, who is close to former President Jacob Zuma, was forced to relinquish all her party positions after being charged with corruption. She can however still run in absentia, enabling her to reclaim the post of chair if she is cleared.
