(Bloomberg) — US stocks lurched lower as traders weighed prospects for growth against a backdrop of rising prices eroding earnings and tightening monetary policy. Treasuries held gains as haven bids steady.
The S&P 500 fell as markets whipsawed a day after the biggest single-day drop since June 2020 on Wednesday that erased $1.5 trillion from its market value. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 pared gains after rising more than 1%. Cisco Systems Inc. slid more than 10% after warning that Chinese lockdowns and other supply disruptions would wipe out sales growth in the current quarter.
Treasury yields were lower across the board amid a growing sense of angst over the health of the global economy and selloff in equity markets. Weaker than forecast US jobless claims and a sharp decline in a regional Philadelphia Fed survey also spurred a burst of buying.
Bets that robust earnings can help investors weather this year’s turbulence were thrown in doubt after US consumer titans signaled growing impact of high inflation on margins and consumer spending. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials have reaffirmed that tighter monetary policy lies ahead, and investors fretted over stagflation risks.
Commentary
- “In this bear market, the sour mood has been persistent and hasn’t helped at all in trying to time a market rebound,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “But that’s what happens in bear markets, oversold gets more oversold. That said, this level of bearishness can always lead to good bear market rallies.”
- “The focus has shifted obviously from ‘OK, we will see the Fed aggressively raise rates,’ to ‘Uh oh, what’s going to go on with growth — are we entering a sustained period of stagflation?’” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “In some instances, we’re already in a period of stagflation, but the question now is how long will that last. That’s just cast a negative tone on the markets when you’re considering central banks aggressively raising rates and at the same time we’re going into a period of maybe slower growth. That’s what’s causing the selloff.”
- “The stock market is square in the crosshairs of the Federal Reserve, which no longer has its back and is solely focused on slowing inflation back down to their long-range target of 2%,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, said in a note. “As the stock market goes down, the Fed can’t ease policy as long as inflation remains their main concern, and if the stock market rises significantly then then Fed will see that as an impediment to their inflation goals and will be emboldened to raise rates even higher.”
- Everybody’s afraid that policy makers are “going to get it wrong,” Lori Heinel at State Street Global Advisors said on Bloomberg TV. “We actually are a little bit more dovish in terms of what we think the Fed’s gonna do, and if they move in the summer and then actually do take a bit of a pause, then there’s a chance that we get out of this without a recession.”
Read more: Goldman, JPMorgan Strategists See Recession Fears as Overblown
Read more: Stock Selloff May Be Entering a New Phase: Mohamed A. El-Erian
Elsewhere, the Swiss franc extended its advance versus the dollar after Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan said policy makers are ready to act against inflation.
What damage will be done to the US economy and global markets before the Fed changes tack and eases policy again? The “Fed Put” is the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. Click here to participate anonymously.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 12:45 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
- The MSCI World index fell 0.6%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.9%
- The euro rose 1.2% to $1.0588
- The British pound rose 1.2% to $1.2493
- The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 127.53 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 2.82%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 0.95%
- Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.86%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $109.78 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 1.4% to $1,848.30 an ounce
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