LONDON (Reuters) -The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on Wednesday forecast a 174,000 tonne global cocoa deficit in the current 2021/22 season (October-September), down slightly from a previous projection of 181,000 tonnes.
The inter-governmental body, in a quarterly update, cut its outlook for global cocoa grindings in 2021/22 by 38,000 tonnes to 5.05 million tonnes, now just 1.5% above the previous season.
The ICCO said cocoa demand had sustained its post-pandemic rebound in the first half of the 2021/22 season, though grindings reports for the current quarter would enable a better assessment of the impact of the conflict in Ukraine.
Grinding reports covering the second quarter of 2022 are expected to be published next month.
“The impact of the overall slowdown in global economic growth (after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) and uncertainties has reverberated within the commodities sector, including cocoa,” the ICCO said.
Global cocoa production in the 2021/22 was forecast at 4.92 million tonnes, down 32,000 tonnes from the ICCO’s previous projection and now 6% below the previous season.
The revision was driven by cuts for Ghana (by 22,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes) and Nigeria (by 10,000 tonnes to 270,000 tonnes).
“Several factors, including adverse weather conditions and diseases, are negatively affecting production for the ongoing season, with concerns for the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop in West Africa,” the ICCO said.
The ICCO estimated that there was a global cocoa surplus of 215,000 tonnes in 2020/21.
(Reporting by Nigel HuntEditing by David Goodman)
