US equity-index futures wobbled between gains and losses as investors awaited the latest payrolls report for clues on the monetary-policy path after a raft of Federal Reserve officials doused expectations for a quick halt to rate hikes.
(Bloomberg) — US equity-index futures wobbled between gains and losses as investors awaited the latest payrolls report for clues on the monetary-policy path after a raft of Federal Reserve officials doused expectations for a quick halt to rate hikes.
December contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.2%, trimming deeper losses, amid premarket declines for semiconductor stocks. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. slumped after it reported weaker-than-expected preliminary 3Q revenue. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 Index traded little changed, with the benchmark poised for the best weekly advance since June. Treasuries drifted lower.
US benchmark bond yields are heading for a 10th week of increases, the longest streak since 1984, as the Fed stays resolute in its fight against inflation despite recent data suggesting a cooling of the economy. Investors are being swayed between hopes for an end to monetary tightening by March next year and concern over the possibility of a deep recession that such a pivot would underscore.
“The issue of the Fed pivot remains the main factor restricting risk appetite,” Sebastien Barbe, the head of emerging-market research and strategy at Credit Agricole CIB, wrote in a note. “Cautiousness should remain in place ahead of the US jobs report. Given the repeated hawkish comments by Fed speakers, this may not be enough to sustainably support risk appetite.”
Chipmakers led the slide in early New York trading. Besides AMD’s plunge, Nvidia Corp. and Intel Corp. which fell more than 2% each amid concern that a slowing world economy will sharply dent semiconductor demand.
In Europe, the main Stoxx 600 index traded near flat after two days of declines. Credit Suisse Group AG more than 4% after announcing a buyback of debt securities for cash, a show of financial strength after market volatility earlier this week on concerns about the bank’s solidity.
Investor focus is increasingly trained on signs of a weaker earnings-reporting season. Besides Thursday’s dour trading update from European oil major Shell, underwhelming figures from AMD and South Korean Samsung Electronics Co. are reinforcing concerns for the global economy.
The US economy remains the focal point of invetors. Friday’s US jobs report is forecast to show employers added a further 255,000 workers in September. While the figure is robust, it would be the fewest jobs added in a month since a decline in late 2020. Unemployment is seen holding at 3.7%, which is just above a five-decade low.
The data will follow hawkish comments from officials. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the benchmark rate will probably be at 4.5% to 4.75% by next spring, and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari said the central bank is “quite a ways away” from pausing its campaign of rate increases.
“Barring an unexpectedly shocking number, I do not think today’s release will prompt the Fed to change tack,” said Stuart Cole, the head macro economist at Equiti Capital. “This has certainly been the message that various Fed officials have been promulgating.”
US crude futures rose to approach $89 a barrel, on course for the biggest weekly surge since March.
Key events this week:
- US unemployment, wholesale inventories, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
- BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday
- Fed’s John Williams speaks at event, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed as of 5:31 a.m. New York time
- Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%
- The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
- The euro rose 0.2% to $0.9809
- The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.1213
- The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $20,006.29
- Ether fell 0.4% to $1,358.8
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.84%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.13%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $88.94 a barrel
- Gold futures were little changed
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