Ukraine Latest: Iran Arms Sales; Russian Training Camp Killings

At least 11 soldiers and possibly far more were killed after two men, said to be from an ex-Soviet state, opened fire at a Russian military training camp near the border with Ukraine, according to state-run media.

Russia is intensifying mobilization efforts and has deployed thousands of new recruits into combat.

(Bloomberg) —

At least 11 soldiers and possibly far more were killed after two men, said to be from an ex-Soviet state, opened fire at a Russian military training camp near the border with Ukraine, according to state-run media.

Russia is intensifying mobilization efforts and has deployed thousands of new recruits into combat. 

Iran plans to sell ballistic missiles to Russia for the first time to help the Kremlin replenish its depleted arsenal, the Washington Post reported, citing US intelligence sources.

Tehran is also expected to supply more kamikaze drones for Russia’s war effort. Iran has denied it’s supplying weapons. The UK on Sunday said Russia is now probably incapable of producing precision-guided cruise missiles at the rate they’re being expended.

President Vladimir Putin plans a security council meeting in the coming week, state media reported.

The group last met on Oct. 10, the day Moscow launched dozens of missile strikes across Ukraine. 

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) 

Key Developments

  • Russia Failed to Swap Out Western Military Parts: 2021 Audit
  • Ukraine IT Sector Tested as Putin Bombs Civilian Infrastructure
  • G-20 Divisions Over War, Oil Laid Bare in Days-Late Statement
  • Putin Says Has No Regrets About Ukraine Invasion After Reverses
  • Elon Musk Backs Down From Demands for Starlink Funding 

On the Ground

Four people were injured in a strike on Russia’s Belgorod region, about 50 km north of the border with Ukraine, the region’s governor said.

There are reports Belgorod airport was heavily damaged; social media posts suggested a dozen or more explosions and showed smoke billowing. Ten Ukrainians were killed and 14 injured in Saturday strikes, the president’s office said.

Heavy fighting was reported near Bakhmut in Donetsk, on of the few areas Russian troops are still advancing. Moscow’s forces are building defensive positions near Kreminna and Svatove, east and northeast of recently liberated Lyman. 

(All times CET)

Baltic Nations Call for War Crimes Tribunal (8:02 p.m.)

The three Baltic countries are calling on all European Union members to lead a drive for a war crimes tribunal to bring Russian leaders to justice, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said. 

EU foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on Monday in Luxembourg.

“Currently there is no international court or tribunal that could bring Russia’s top political and military leadership to account for committing the crime of aggression against Ukraine,” Rinkevics and his colleagues from Lithuania and Estonia said in a joint statement he posted on Twitter.

This “jurisdictional loophole” must be filled, they said.

Ukraine Ramps Up Air Offensive (6:05 p.m.)

Ukraine’s air force delivered over 20 strikes on Sunday, hitting 17 Russian areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment and four positions of anti-aircraft missile systems, officials said in an evening update.

 

A Russian command post was hit by Ukrainian artillery, according to the dispatch. No details were provided on the location of the activity, and the claims can’t be verified. Ukraine’s General Staff said some Russian annexation officials have started evacuating to Crimea. 

Ukrainian troops launched a “general counteroffensive” in the northern Kherson region on Saturday, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which cited Russian sources. 

G-20 Divisions Over War, Oil Laid Bare in Days-Late Statement (4:33 p.m.)

Officials from the world’s biggest economies were divided on issues including Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to a Group of 20 statement released three days later than usual. 

“Many members strongly condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine and expressed the view that Russia’s illegal, unjustified and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is impairing the global economic recovery,” according to the G-20 “Chair’s Summary” issued on Sunday by Indonesia. 

Read more: G-20 Divisions Over War, Oil Laid Bare in Days-Late Statement

Ukraine, Turkish Officials Meet on Grain Deal (2:50 p.m.)

Oleksander Kubrakov, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, held talks Sunday with Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s defense minister, on the Black Sea safe-transit deal that’s seen over 7.5 million tons of Ukrainian farm products shipped since August. 

Separately, in Moscow, UN Deputy Secretary General Martin Griffiths held talks on the deal with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin, according to Tass.

There was no immediate word on the outcome. 

Kubrakov said there was “no doubt” the initiative, which runs through Nov. 22, will continue. Ukraine is keen to speed up vessel inspections by the Turkish-run co-ordination center, Tass reported.

Over 340 ships have sailed under the initiative so far, including another four on Sunday. 

Belarus Says Russia Sending 9,000 Troops for Joint Force (2:12 p.m.)

Moscow plans to send about 9,000 troops to Belarus for a new joint force, while warplanes are also en route, Tass reported, citing officials in Minsk.

A Belarusian monitoring group spotted Russian MiG-31 fighters flying into Minsk. 

The first of the trains carrying the Russians have begun to arrive and the process will take several days, Belarusian officials said. 

Belarus announced the force last week, fueling fears it could be a cover for a new move by Russian troops into Ukraine from the north.

Moscow launched its failed drive toward Kyiv in February from Belarusian territory. 

Mayor’s Office in Russian-Annexed Hit By Missile Strike (11:35 a.m.)

The mayor’s office in the Russian-annexed Ukrainian city of Donetsk was hit by a missile Sunday, injuring four people and causing substantial damage, state news agencies reported.

RIA said the attack was a direct hit on the building in downtown Donetsk, capital of one of the self-declared separatist zones in the Donbas region.

Local officials also reported one person was killed in another attack in the area Sunday.

The strike comes as several explosions were heard in the Belgorod region of Russia, about 50 km north of the Ukrainian border.

Social media posts show smoke billowing from around the city’s airport.  

Forced Deportations Amount to Ethnic Cleansing of Ukrainians, ISW Says (10 a.m.)

Massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians, including children subsequently put up for adoption, “likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign” and a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, said the Institute for the Study of War. 

Moscow may be carrying out a wider ethnic cleansing campaign “by depopulating Ukrainian territory through deportations and repopulating Ukrainian cities with imported Russian citizens,” the US-based military analysts said in a report. 

Ukrainian sources have said that reconstruction projects in Mariupol, the southern city mostly razed by Russia bombardments in the spring, are intended to house “tens of thousands of Russians.”

Gazprom Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies to Countries That Cap Prices (9:30 a.m.)

Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said the Russian gas giant would suspend supplies to countries that impose a price cap, reiterating a threat made by the Kremlin.

Miller said any cap would be a breach in contract terms and thus lead to a halt in deliveries, Tass reported.

With European leaders discussing a possible limit on prices for fuel from Russia, Vladimir Putin and his government have said they would cut shipments in retaliation.

Most of Russia’s gas exports to western Europe, once its largest export market, have been suspended amid ongoing tensions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Iran Steps Up Arms Deliveries to Russia: WaPo (9 a.m.) 

Tehran will supply Russia with what officials describe as the first Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles, in addition to replenishing its supply of attack drones, the Washington Post reported, citing US and allied security officials. 

Iran is preparing for the first time to send Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, the newspaper reported, citing officials briefed on the matter.

Such missiles would help Moscow replenish a fast shrinking supply of precision-guided munitions, such as those used in last week’s strikes against several Ukrainian cities. 

Iran has repeatedly denied supplying drones to Russia despite mounting evidence of their use in the war.

Ukraine’s military estimates Russian still has about 300 Iranian-made drones with plans to buy thousands more. Separately, the UK defence ministry said on Sunday that Russia is probably incapable of producing advanced munitions at the rate they’re being expended.

Read more: Russia Failed to Swap Out Western Military Parts: 2021 Audit

Eleven Killed at Shooting at Russian Training Base (8 a.m.)

At least 11 people were killed and 15 wounded at a training base in the Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, according to Interfax.

Unconfirmed reports on Telegram put the death toll much higher. The Belgorod region’s governor called the incident “terrorism.”

The two citizens of another unnamed ex-Soviet state who opened fire at the weapons training session for “volunteers” headed to Ukraine were killed, the ministry said.

Calling the attackers “terrorists,” it provided few other details. The region’s governor said all the dead and wounded were military personnel.

Moscow has sought to build up the ranks of its military by offering citizens of former Soviet states the chance to get Russian passports in return for serving in its military.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz in Talks to Market Gas Reserves: Telegraph (7:42 a.m.)

Ukraine is in talks with US drillers to pump gas from its untapped reserves to Europe and ease the region’s energy crisis by the end of the decade, the Telegraph reported, citing an interview with an adviser to Naftogaz’s chief executive.

“We have a number of resources and gas reserves there that are basically the second largest in Europe,” said Myron Wasylyk.

“We estimate there could be up to 40 billion cubic meters.”

Musk Signals He’s Backing Off Starlink Threat (8:42 p.m.)

Elon Musk said Saturday he’d continue to fund Starlink satellites in Ukraine “for free” after a standoff with the US Defense Department over the cost of their deployment.

Musk threatened a day earlier to cut financial support for SpaceX’s satellite internet service in Ukraine, claiming that the operation had cost his company $80 million so far.

The Pentagon said it was in talks with SpaceX, while saying the US is looking at other options. 

 

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