By Moira Warburton and Gram Slattery
(Reuters) – It was still unclear on Wednesday afternoon whether Republicans or Democrats would emerge from U.S. midterm elections with control of the House of Representatives.
Republicans had flipped eight seats, more than the five they would need to take a majority, though with 44 races yet to be called that number could go up or down in the days ahead.
Here are 12 races that strategists and pollsters from both parties are watching closely:
IOWA’S 3RD DISTRICT
Republican state Senator Zach Nunn, a former Air Force pilot, defeated Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne in a redrawn district that leans more conservative in previous elections.
This was the only Iowa seat held by Democrats, and its loss comes as many Democrats fear that Iowa, once the nation’s ultimate bellwether, is slipping out of reach for the party.
ARIZONA’S 2ND DISTRICT
Republican Eli Crane, a former Navy SEAL who in September 2021 called on Arizona’s legislature to decertify Biden’s win in 2020, defeated Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran.
O’Halleran faced a difficult race after his district covering much of the eastern half of the state was redrawn to include more Republican voters.
NEW YORK’S 17TH DISTRICT
Incumbent Democratic Representative Sean Patrick Maloney suffered a surprise loss against Republican state lawmaker Michael Lawler in this Hudson County seat. Maloney is the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s U.S. House campaign arm, and ousting him was a major bright spot for Republicans.
It was the first time the head of a House campaign arm lost their seat since 1980, reflecting a strong statewide surge for Republicans in New York.
RHODE ISLAND’S 2ND DISTRICT
State treasurer Seth Magaziner held onto this seat for Democrats against Republican Allan Fung, a local mayor, in an unexpectedly competitive race. The district had voted Democratic since 1991, but Fung gained national attention running as a moderate, campaigning heavily on inflation.
OHIO’S 9TH DISTRICT
Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur held off perhaps the toughest challenge of her nearly 40-year history in the Toledo-area district, from Republican J.R. Majewski.
She was widely expected to lose her seat to Majewski, a vocal Trump advocate who was at the U.S. Capitol during the riot on Jan. 6, 2021, after Republicans redrew the district. But an Associated Press report that he misrepresented his military career caused Republicans to pull their advertising for him.
VIRGINIA’S 2ND DISTRICT
Republican state Senator Jen Kiggans defeated incumbent Democratic U.S. Representative Elaine Luria for this military-heavy district centered on Virginia Beach.
Luria, a retired naval commander, drew national attention for her work on the committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Congress. Kiggans campaigned heavily on the issue of inflation.
KANSAS’S 3RD DISTRICT
Democrat Sharice Davids held her district against Amanda Adkins, a former chair of the state Republican Party.
Davids faced a tough race after Republicans redrew the suburban Kansas City district to include more rural, conservative-leaning areas. However, the national debate over abortion appeared to have worked in her favor: Voters in this conservative state in August rejected a constitutional amendment that would have banned the procedure.
FLORIDA’S 13TH DISTRICT
Republican Anna Paulina Luna, an Air Force veteran, flipped Florida’s 13th District, beating Democrat Eric Lynn, a former Obama administration official.
This suburban Tampa district was one of several Democratic-held seats in Florida that Republicans were likely to pick up, thanks to a new district map backed by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.
ALASKA’S AT-LARGE DISTRICT
Democrat Mary Peltola won a surprise victory in an August special election, beating two Republicans: former Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and businessman Nick Begich. Republicans objected to Alaska’s new system of “ranked choice” voting, in which voters list candidates in order of preference, although Peltola would have won even under the old system as she got the most votes. Peltola had jumped out to a commanding lead as of Wednesday, but the race was not yet called.
CALIFORNIA’S 22ND DISTRICT
Republican Representative David Valadao was one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in his second trial. He is now facing a tough challenge from Democratic state Representative Rudy Salas in a Central Valley district that has been redrawn substantially since the last election.
MAINE’S 2ND DISTRICT
Democratic Representative Jared Golden narrowly won this mostly rural district in 2018. Now, he faces Republican Bruce Poliquin, who formerly held the seat. Golden is a moderate Democrat who often distances himself from party leadership, while Poliquin is emphasizing hot-button issues like immigration and gun rights, rather than the fiscal topics he ran on before. Two independent candidates have not drawn significant support but could be a factor because Maine, like Alaska, uses ranked choice voting.
OREGON’S 5TH DISTRICT
Democratic voters ousted moderate incumbent Kurt Schrader in a primary election in favor of progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner. But some analysts have said the district, which includes suburbs of Portland and Salem, leans Republican. McLeod-Skinner faces Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a former mayor of Happy Valley, a Portland suburb.
(Reporting by Gram Slattery; editing by Aurora Ellis and Jonathan Oatis)
