JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia’s trade surplus likely fell further last month to $3.27 billion as imports rose ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, when consumption typically peaks, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has been recording trade surpluses every month since May 2020, but they have narrowed in in recent months due to moderating commodity prices.
January’s surplus was $3.87 billion.
Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal and palm oil. It is also a top supplier of other commodities, like tin, copper, rubber and nickel products.
Export growth in February was seen slowing further to 5% on a yearly basis, compared with the previous month’s rate of 16.37%, according to a median forecast of 17 economists.
Meanwhile, February import growth was seen jumping to 9.74% from 1.27% in January.
Ramadan in Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, will start next week.
Faisal Rachman, an economist with Bank Mandiri, said rising imports reflected companies’ preparations for Ramadan and post-pandemic recovery of manufacturing activities.
Mandiri predicted Indonesia might post narrower monthly trade surpluses going forward due to the decline in commodity prices, which could swing its current account to a deficit of around 1.1% of GDP this year, compared with a 1% surplus in 2022.
(Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Veronica Khongwir in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman in Jakarta; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor)
