It is widely expected the Bank of England will deliver another 25 bps hike Thursday, the 12th straight rise since it started the tightening cycle in December 2021. Whether the BOE will follow the Fed and hint at a pause, or follow the ECB and signal more hikes is the focus of the meeting.
The market is leaning toward the latter.
(Bloomberg) — It is widely expected the Bank of England will deliver another 25 bps hike Thursday, the 12th straight rise since it started the tightening cycle in December 2021.
Whether the BOE will follow the Fed and hint at a pause, or follow the ECB and signal more hikes is the focus of the meeting. The market is leaning toward the latter.
Inflation is still a pressing issue for the UK, with the 4.5% policy rate way behind 10.1% CPI.
OIS swap market is expecting at least another hike, and possibly two by September this year.
Ten-year Gilt yield is on verge of breaking a year-to-date top, another 25 bps rise will send the yield toward 4% level.
FX option traders are positioning for a higher GBP/USD, with 1-week risk reversals now near the highest since May 2021.
A hawkish BOE can send the currency pair above April 2022 high.
NOTE: Ernest Tsang is a markets producer for Bloomberg TV. The observations are his own and not intended as investment advice.
For more markets analysis, see the MLIV blog.
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