(Reuters) – Several global banks cut their 2023 economic growth forecasts for China this week after disappointing second-quarter numbers raised the risk of the economy missing the government’s 5% annual growth target, and underlined the need for more stimulus.
Beijing faces a delicate task as it has to balance stimulus measures without fueling debt risks and structural distortions.
A few brokerages still expect a pick-up in the second half of the year, while most others say further policy measures might prove too late for meaningful growth.
All eyes are now on a Politburo meeting later this month for insights into the government’s policy thinking.
Following are forecasts from some major global banks:
Brokerage Current 2023 GDP Previous 2023
growth forecast GDP forecast
BofA 5.1% 5.70%
Morgan Stanley 5% 5.70%
JP Morgan 5% 5.50%
Citigroup 5% 5.50%
Deutsche Bank 5.30% 6%
Goldman Sachs 5.40% 5.40%
UBS 5.2% 5.2%
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
