By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) -New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday the U.S. central bank has monetary policy in the right place to get inflation get back to 2%, while reiterating that he’s unsure when it will be able to cut interest rates.
“The behavior of the economy over the past year provides ample evidence that monetary policy is restrictive in a way that helps us achieve our goals,” Williams said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York.
“I see the current stance of monetary policy as being well positioned to continue the progress we’ve made toward achieving our objectives,” Williams said. He added that Fed policymakers “will continue to keep an eye on the totality of the data, so that we make policy decisions that ensure that we get inflation sustainably back to 2% while maintaining a strong labor market.”
“At some point” the Fed will get to a place where it can cut rates, but it’s unclear when that will happen, Williams said after his formal remarks. “I don’t feel any urgency” to lower rates, however, given how well the economy is performing in the face of the current monetary policy setting, he said.
In response to a question about how much the Fed might cut rates, Williams said, “if I don’t know when we’re going to cut rates, how can I answer that question” about the eventual scope of that action.
Williams, who also serves as the vice chair of the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, weighed in less than two weeks before the Fed’s June 11-12 policy meeting. His comments largely echoed those made in a recent Reuters interview. The Fed is widely expected next month to maintain its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range. It will also release updated economic projections after the end of that meeting.
At the March meeting, Fed officials continued to pencil in three rate cuts this year. They’re widely expected to dial back that forecast next month given the unexpected sturdiness of inflation in the first part of 2024. Fed officials have backed away from talking about the prospect of rate cuts this year and traders and investors have pushed back the possible start date of cuts to later in the year.
Williams said inflation remains too high and the readings over the first months of the year have been disappointing. But he expects to see price pressures ease further in the second half of 2024 amid a better balancing of the economy.
He expects price pressures to ease to around 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in 2024 and said inflation will be “closer” to 2% next year. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.7% in March. The Commerce Department is due to release the April data on Friday.
Williams also said the job market remains tight and wage gains are still too high to be consistent with 2% inflation. He sees unemployment rising to 4% this year, from the current 3.9% rate, and said the economy should grow by 2% to 2.5% this year.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
