(Reuters) – India’s economy grew by 6.7% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, compared with 7.8% growth in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday.
A Reuters poll had predicted a 6.9% expansion in India’s gross domestic product for the quarter ending June 30.
COMMENTARY
YUVIKA SINGHAL, ECONOMIST, QUANTECO RESEARCH, NEW DELHI
“Above-normal rainfall this monsoon season, and the strength it will impart to agri output and rural spending is likely to offer added support to FY25 growth momentum premised on post-election pickup in government spending, as well as broadening of private-sector capex cycle.”
SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM
“The GDP print shows that growth momentum continued in Q1, despite an usual seasonal slowdown and the election effect. Manufacturing and construction activity remained healthy. It was encouraging to see that consumption growth is also beginning to gain momentum.”
DEVENDRA KUMAR PANT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INDIA RATINGS AND RESEARCH, GURUGRAM
“With moderation in inflation in FY25 and more-than-normal monsoon, consumption demand is likely to get a boost, leading to a positive growth outlook for the rest of the quarters.”
SUJAN HAJRA, CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ANAND RATHI SHARES AND STOCK BROKERS, MUMBAI
“Robust growth, coupled with falling inflation, is expected to support continued outperformance in the Indian equity market.”
“However, the strong growth figures may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to maintain the current monetary policy rates throughout 2024.”
ADITI NAYAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HEAD RESEARCH AND OUTREACH, ICRA LTD, MUMBAI
“We anticipate a back-ended pickup in GDP growth to above 7% in H2 FY25, boosted by factors such as government capex and pent-up rural demand during the festive months.”
SACHCHIDANAND SHUKLA, GROUP CHIEF ECONOMIST, LARSEN & TOUBRO, MUMBAI
“The Gross Value Added (GVA)-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) divide has normalized. This portends broader normalization in growth after unidirectional robust growth prints.”
“While some of the reasons may be one-offs, going forward both monetary and fiscal policy will have an important role in supporting growth.”
SWATI ARORA, ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, MUMBAI
“Slowdown in GDP emerged as expected. On the positive side, upbeat private consumption expenditure reflects recovery in rural demand as gauged by high frequency indicators of two-wheelers and tractor sales, and FMCG sales data.”
“For the coming quarters, we expect GDP growth between 6.5% and 7.0%.”
TERESA JOHN, LEAD ECONOMIST, NIRMAL BANG, MUMBAI
“Growth is seeing some cyclical moderation, but both GVA and GDP growth were better than our expectation.”
“Growth is now only marginally below the long-term trend. If this trend sustains for one more quarter, we see downside risks to the RBI’s estimate of 7.2% GDP growth.”
GARIMA KAPOOR, ECONOMIST, INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, ELARA SECURITIES, MUMBAI
“The disruption due to elections and heat wave led to moderation in services growth.”
“The risk of government spending undershooting the budget estimates this year, amid rural urban divide in consumption demand, will weigh on full-year GDP estimate.”
UPASNA BHARDWAJ, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK, MUMBAI
“While the Q1 FY25 GDP growth has come in softer than expectations, the GVA has remained firm, with non-farm growth holding up well.”
“We retain our GDP growth expectations of 6.9% in FY25, aided largely by rural demand and government spending, while closely watching the likely fatigue in urban demand, private capex and the pace of global slowdown.”
(Reporting by Nishit Navin, Haripriya Suresh, Meenakshi Maidas, Ashish Chandra, Siddhi Nayak and Dimpal Gulwani in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
