By Gavin Jones
ROME (Reuters) -Italian gross domestic product stagnated in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, missing forecasts and casting a shadow over growth prospects in the euro zone’s third largest economy.
On a year-on-year basis, third quarter GDP was up 0.4%, national statistics bureau ISTAT said.
A Reuters survey of 25 economists had forecast a 0.2% rise quarter-on-quarter and a 0.7% increase year-on-year.
Giorgia Meloni’s government is officially forecasting the economy to expand by 1% this year, but following downward revisions to the first two quarters Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said this month that the goal may be out of reach.
Prior to ISTAT’s third quarter estimate most analysts were forecasting Italian 2024 growth roughly in line with last year’s 0.7% rate.
Those forecasts are now likely to be revised down.
The flat GDP reading between July and September resulted from an increase in domestic demand offset by negative trade flows with exports weaker than imports, ISTAT said.
It gave no numerical breakdown of components with its preliminary estimate but said the service sector had expanded while industry had seen a “steep contraction”.
Agriculture, which contributes much less to the economy, registered a slight decline, ISTAT said.
Looking ahead, the outlook is clouded by the impact of high interest rates, geopolitical tensions linked to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and difficulties faced by the Rome government in deploying European Union pandemic recovery funds.
ISTAT confirmed its previous data for the second quarter, at 0.2% compared with the previous three months and 0.6% year-on-year.
So-called “acquired growth” at the end of the third quarter stands at 0.4%, ISTAT said in its preliminary statement.
This means that if there were to be zero quarter-on-quarter growth in the final three months, over the whole of 2024 GDP would increase by 0.4% from the previous year.
ISTAT will issue final GDP data for the third quarter on Dec. 2. The institute’s definitive data often revises its preliminary estimate.
(Reporting by Gavin Jones and Antonella Cinelli, graphic by Stefano Bernabei)
