(Reuters) – Major brokerages, including BofA and Goldman Sachs, expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in the upcoming January meeting after the central bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its December policy meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, remarks that showed policymakers are starting to reckon with the prospects for sweeping economic changes under a Trump administration.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Jan 2025 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Goldman Sachs No rate cut 75 (through 3.50%-3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
J.P.Morgan No rate cut 75(through 3.75% (through
September September 2025)
2025)
3.375% (Q4 2025)
Morgan Stanley No rate cut 50 (through
June 2025)
Nomura No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25% (through
end of 2025)
*UBS Global No rate cut 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank No rate cut No Rate 4.25%-4.50%
Cuts
Societe No rate cut – 3.00%-3.25% (by
Generale early 2026)
ING No rate cut 75 3.75% – 4.00%
Macquarie No rate cut 25 4.00%-4.25%
UBS Global No rate cut 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Wealth 2025)
Management
Peel Hunt No rate cut 50 3.50%-4.00%
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Shinjini Ganguli, Devika Syamnath, Maju Samuel and Shounak Dasgupta)
